Hypothetical gay marriage referendums: Guess the vote in these 10 states.

[old timey villain]

Let's say that today 10 states around America are holding statewide referendums on legalizing gay marriage. Neither side has campaigned or put out any advertisements, but citizens are aware of the referendums and are prepared to vote. Based on what you know about these states what will the percent voting "yes" be in each one?

Alabama
South Dakota
New Jersey
Georgia
Alaska
Ohio
Arizona
West Virginia
Oregon
Florida

(Many of these states have already held referendums but were several years ago)

[old timey villain]

Alabama 30% (Alabama is one of the most religious states in the country. Gay Marriage has not gained much traction here. Residents might see it less as a referendum on rights and more as an attempt to meddle in the culture of the area.)

South Dakota 45% (despite being a conservative state, it's less religious)

New Jersey 53% ( I think NJ would easily pass it)

Georgia 40% (similar to Alabama, but with a greater progressive influence in and around Atlanta. It would also do better than expected in some suburbs but would be demolished in most rural areas)

Alaska 43% (Alaska is a very libertarian state and I see it doing better than expected here)

Ohio 45% (I see it just shy of passing in Ohio. The Democratic base isn't progressive enough to carry it over the finish line)

Arizona 49% (I see a razor thin close result. Arizona has elected an openly bisexual congresswoman and their conservatism is focused more on immigration and being the anti-California than anything else)

West Virginia 40% (It probably does better in the northern half of the state than the southern end)

Oregon 52-55% (I see it having similar results to the referendum in Washington state. The white support would be about equal but less socially conservative minorities here)

Florida 45% (A good fight but not enough to pass. SE Florida and the cities would be all for it but North Florida would be a brick wall against the referendum passing statewide)