old timey villain
cope1989
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,741
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« on: September 25, 2012, 10:04:18 AM » |
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I'm not about to predict how states will vote 36 years from now. States change and political parties change.
But I think examining the electoral votes for each state is cool. I see you're predicting continued growth for the sunbelt and a stagnating rust belt and east coast. This will probably continue to happen but my 2048 I think you'll see a slowdown in growth in the south due to climate and water issues.
By 2048 I'm guessing Texas will rival California in population so the number of electoral votes in each state might be closer to one another.
North Carolina and Georgia will also probably be population powerhouses. I'm guessing there will be at least 12-13 million people in both states, maybe even more. I agree with NC having slightly more electoral votes than Georgia. I think NC will surpass GA in population in the next 20 years or so but they'll always be close to each other.
The rustbelt stabilizes but population growth will still be stagnant so a continued loss of electoral votes seems probable.
Give SC maybe 2 more electoral votes and it seems about right. Its location wedged between GA and NC portends greater population growth.
North Dakota is tricky. I suspect a minor population boom in the next decade or two. So maybe that bumps it up to 5 electoral votes.
14 EVs for Arizona looks about right, give or take one or two. Arizona's population growth has largely been driven by cheap housing and migration out of California, but without a lot of economic growth it seems unsustainable in the long term.
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