KY-SurveyUSA: Romney has large lead in the state

[old timey villain]

It's crazy how much things have changed in only 20 years. In the 1992 race, Clinton won Kentucky and New Jersey by about the same margin.

[old timey villain]

I don't know much about Campbell County, KY. I assume it's a suburb of Cincinnati?

I was talking more about the realignment. It seems like most conservative Democrats in KY have moved into the R column. I see Kentucky as a safe Republican state for years to come.

[old timey villain]

Back in April, I made a map that has these counties flipping to Obama: Boyd, Mason, Robertson, Bath, Floyd, Woodford, Franklin, Carroll, Marion, Warren, Muhlenberg, Daviess, Union.

I doubt all of those counties would flip to Obama. In fact, I doubt most of them will even under the best of circumstances.

Outer ring suburban growth in Louisville and Lexington  will not be enough to create a major shift to the left in Kentucky. Most states, especially southern states, have to undergo a massive influx of millions of new residents before the politics change. We're talking about Florida or North Carolina growth rates. And to give you some numbers, Florida and North Carolina each grew by about 18% in the last decade. Kentucky grew by 7%.

If not the growth rates, what is it about Kentucky that leads you to believe it will become a swing state in the future? I really really just do not see it, and god knows I'd like to.

[old timey villain]

If not the growth rates, what is it about Kentucky that leads you to believe it will become a swing state in the future?

Because it didn't fall as far as the rest of the South did, so it doesn't have as far to climb.

But it doesn't work that way. Trends don't reverse themselves overnight. Kentucky has been trending R since 1996, and Obama did historically poorly in the only area of the state left that still supported Democrats (eastern Kentucky). Your belief isn't backed by any facts of hard data.

[old timey villain]

A lot of hackery on this thread. Obama aint winning Tennessee and he certainly aint winning Kentucky. He certainly could improve, but he's not the right Democrat to win these states, and I'm not sure any national Democratic candidate could make that happen right now. Romney is an acceptable choice for most of these voters solely because he's not Barack Obama.