I'd say its still 50/50, but the O campaign has serious telltale signs of disaster.
-Desperate and extra-gimmicky fundraising: Sarah Jessica Parker, Pick the Celebrity, hes doing numerous fundraisers - more than even Bush did in his reelection effort and still didnt match Romney recently
-Negative and gimmick advertising: the life of Julia (a woman who for all intents and purposes is a deified welfare queen, having her entire life subsidized by the government), "We've got your back" - a stereotypical, almost racist, blaxploitation ad that screams he desperately needs his base, and the other negative tv ads on Romney I see daily
-The Clinton wing attacks - Bill's endorsement/non-endorsement of Romney and ruination of the let's go after Romney for Bain strategy, various former Clinton admin tv commentators smelling blood
-Non Clinton wing disappointment and blame game
-the slight polling shift, though I strongly believe that the heavy dem voter models inside the polls are insane
-the little things sticking out because of bad economic news, stuff that wouldnt if the economy were good
-Gimmick policy positions - like the "evolution" to supporting SSM in order to turn out gays, the "War on Women" pablum, etc.
-NYT leaking national security secrets to make Obama look strong on defense
Ain't lookin good...
A lot of that is subjective
If you look at things like economic indicators (which are still positive), favorability numbers and party support, Obama still has the edge.
And I think Romney's tactic of controlling the message by refusing to talk about things will backfire in the fall. It will eventually come off as off putting and sneaky to most people.
I'm kind of glad the race has tightened, as it makes the election more exciting, especially on the forum. But is 2012 really any different from other races? I mean, every year, the supporters of the challenger are convinced their guy has a shot, and they'll list a million reasons why. But honestly, incumbents rarely lose their reelection bids, and it takes very dramatic circumstances for the opposite to happen.
