Which counties in swing states will trend GOP for 2012?

[old timey villain]

Georgia isn't considered a swing state to many people, but there are demographic changes going on in several of metro Atlanta's biggest counties that could make the state competitive.

Gwinnett- second largest county in Georgia. It's well over 800K people and becoming more diverse. Bush got 66% of the vote in 2004, McCain got 55% in 2008.

Cobb: population well over 700K. It's becoming more diverse, but the biggest change is that many areas of the county that were suburban and now becoming more urban. A lot of young professionals moving into places like smyrna and vinings. Obama lost the county by only 9 points in 2008.

Henry, Douglas, Rockdale, Newton: These exurban counties are gaining a lot of black residents. Newton has gone from solid GOP to solid dem in about 5 years. Henry, Douglas and Newton have gone from solid GOP to swing counties in about the same time.

Dem to GOP

There are several counties in South Georgia, and a few in North Georgia that used to go very strongly for blue dog types but have quickly become GOP strongholds. Clinton won most of the counties in South Georgia, Gore held onto a few, and even Kerry managed to win some, but since Obama they have become lost to the democrats. Check out Mitchell, Telfair and Webster counties.

Some counties in North Georgia, such as Dawson, Lumpkin and Rabun went strongly for certain Democrats. They were Clinton and Zell Miller country. Now they go for the Repubs by at least 70%.

The good news for Democrats is that gains in Metro Atlanta should be able to offset their losses in the more rural areas of the state. In 2012, expect to see a Dem trend in metro Atlanta, especially the Southern suburbs, and a Repub trend elsewhere in the state.