Norwegian Storting Election 2009

[Kevinstat]

Current result 407 of 430 municipals (and change from 2005)
Ap: 64 (+3)
Sp: 11 (-4)
SV: 11 (n/c)

H: 31 (+8)
V: 2 (-8)
Frp: 40 (+2)
Krf: 10 (-1)

R: 0 (n/c)

Ap, Sp & SV: 86 (-1)
H, V, Krf & Frp: 83 (+1)

Venstre at 3.9% of the vote.  Any analysis of how Venstre-friendly the remaining 25 polls are, collectively?

[Kevinstat]

As tight as can be for the red-green coalition...

Current result 410 of 430 municipals (and change from 2005)

Ap: 63 (+2)
Sp: 11 (-4)
SV: 11 (n/c)

H: 31 (+8)
V: 2 (-8)
Frp: 41 (+3)
Krf: 10 (-1)

R: 0 (n/c)

Ap, Sp & SV: 85 (-2)
H, V, Krf & Frp: 84 (+2)

[Kevinstat]

As tight as can be for the red-green coalition...

Current result 410 of 430 municipals (and change from 2005)

Ap: 63 (+2)
Sp: 11 (-4)
SV: 11 (n/c)

H: 31 (+8)
V: 2 (-8)
Frp: 41 (+3)
Krf: 10 (-1)

R: 0 (n/c)

Ap, Sp & SV: 85 (-2)
H, V, Krf & Frp: 84 (+2)

It's very close, but Høyre is hanging on to the most marginal mandates (5 or 6). It is more likely that they will lose a mandate or 2 than Ap will lose one more

The most recent results seem to bear that out:

Current result 415 of 430 municipals (and change from 2005)

Ap: 64 (+3)
Sp: 11 (-4)
SV: 11 (n/c)

H: 30 (+7)
V: 2 (-8)
Frp: 41 (+3)
Krf: 10 (-1)

R: 0 (n/c)

Ap, Sp & SV: 86 (-1)
H, V, Krf & Frp: 83 (+1)

[Kevinstat]

Current result 421 of 430 municipals (and change from 2005)

Ap: 64 (+3)
Sp: 11 (-4)
SV: 11 (n/c)

H: 30 (+7)
V: 2 (-8)
Frp: 41 (+3)
Krf: 10 (-1)

R: 0 (n/c)

Ap, Sp & SV: 86 (-1)
H, V, Krf & Frp: 83 (+1)

[Kevinstat]

Same seat allocation as above with 425 of 430 municipals in.  Venstre down to 3.8% so definitely just the provincial seats for them (and I imagine they are solidly at 2 of those at this point in the count).