REAL redistricting in the Republic of Ireland

[Kevinstat]

The Irish Constituency Commission ( http://www.constituency-commission.ie ) submitted its proposals for the new Dáil and European Parliament constituencies to the Chairman of the Dáil Éireann on October 23 - excuse me, I mean 23 October 2007.  You can view their report at http://www.constituency-commission.ie/docs/con2007.pdf and access maps of the proposals from their site at http://www.constituency-commission.ie/newreports.htm .  The electionsireland.org site has the same links as that last page plus summary information on the proposed changes at http://www.electionsireland.org/results/general/boundary/2007constituencies.cfm .

The commission seemed, in many cases, to make as few changes as possible.  Many people expected a 5-seat constituency to be created in County Kerry, perhaps with some territory in districts otherwise in Counties Cork and/or Limerick.  A 4-seat Kerry constituency would function as a 4-seater in the next election should the current Ceann Comhairle (speaker), John O'Donoghue, stand for automatic reelection.  But O'Donohue's constituency of Kerry South remains a 3-seater, and the constituency only grows so I can't see any other constituency as proposed being deemed the successor to the current Kerry South with respect to rule whatever it is that has the Ceann Comhairle automatically returned unless he or she steps down.  So Kerry South will be a 2-seater in the next election unless O'Donoghue  decides to retire (could Gully Foyle or Jas speculate on how likely that is?).

The many please from Leitrim residents to end the split of their county fell on deaf ears, and the line dividing the county between Sligo-North Leitrim and Roscommon-South Leitrim was moved southeast from the River Shannon and Lough Allen to a more arbitrary boundary on seemingly largely dry land to bring the Sligo seat closer to the ideal population per TD.  The commission did address the concerns of residents of Drogheda and its environs by expanding the 4-seat Lough constituency south into Drogheda-oriented area in County Meath and making it a 5-seater.

With the European Parliament constituencies, the commission decided to keep the four-constituency model in spite of the Republic of Ireland losing a seat, and kept the old (and still official) County Dublin in one slightly (12%, practically exactly) overpopulated constituency.  The 16.76% underpopulated North-West constitency, however, was brought closer to the national average population per MEP by adding the counties of Longford and Westmeath from the existing East constituency.  From the current 13-seat situation the only constituency where the deviation from the national average population per MEP will grow is Dublin, and that only from 9% (under) to 12% (over), so that's good.  I would have preferred, however, dividing the existing East constituency among the Dublin (renamed East or South-East, perhaps renaming South South-West in the latter case) and North-West constituencies, with North-West becoming a four-seater and a new 5-seater being formed (South fit too well to tweak).  Three of the proposed Dáil constituencies consist of territory within three proposed European constituencies (Limerick City mostly in South, which includes an electoral division in County Clare in North-West, Tippery North now entirely in South, which expended into County Offaly in East, and Meath West now entirely in East, which still includes part of County Westmeath in the proposed North-West constituency), while only one existing Dáil constituency, Limerick East (the predecessor to the proposed Limerick City constituency, which was unchanged with respect to County Clare) is currently divided among European Parliament constituencies.  That's not a big deal I don't think, just something interesting I observed.

Looking forward to your comments, particularly those of the Atlas Forum's resident Irishmen.

[Kevinstat]

It just occured to me that it probably isn't a coincidence that County Westmeath is west of County Meath.  I know one county besides County Meath was mostly or entirely in the old Kingdon of Meath or Midi, and that was probably County Westmeath, which would have been in the west of Meath.  I can be slow sometimes.

Too bad for the people of Kerry South likely being in an effective two-seater for the next election.  Still better than our one-seaters I guess.

[Kevinstat]

The last time there was an effective two-seater in an election was in 1977 when Seán Treacy was the outgoing Ceann Comhairle.  His constituency of Tipperary South had been a four-seater (actually and effectively) in the previous election.  It gained it's forth seat and had lost it's Ceann Comhairle (although not Treacy) for the next election, got it's Ceann Comhairle back by the 1989 election, and would have been an effective two-seater again in 1997 after losing its forth seat had Treacy not stood down that year after 36 straight years in the Dáil.

I had moved on to other things in the middle of making this post.  I'm glad to see there have been several comments.  West Bromwich East is quite a name for a constituency.  Does it still exist?  It was (or is) a House of Commons constituency name right?

[Kevinstat]

It just occured to me that it probably isn't a coincidence that County Westmeath is west of County Meath.  I know one county besides County Meath was mostly or entirely in the old Kingdon of Meath or Midi, and that was probably County Westmeath, which would have been in the west of Meath.  I can be slow sometimes.

Too bad for the people of Kerry South likely being in an effective two-seater for the next election.  Still better than our one-seaters I guess.

Not really. Two seaters with PR are basically the same thing as doing without elections altogether. Chile has them, btw.

In most parts of the U.S. that would be the case, but I could see a decent contest for the non-Fianna Fáil seat in Kerry South, although Fine Gael's Tom Sheahan would seem to be the favorite.  He might get a lot of Jackie Healy-Rae's vote if he doesn't run (or after elimination) and after it goes to the winning Fianna Fáil candidate and after the second Fianna Fáil candidate is eliminated - it would probably go to Sheahan over Breeda Moynihan Cronin is what I'm saying, although it could be relatively dilluted by then.  There was stasis in terms of the partisan result in Donegal-Leitrim during Cormac Breslin's reign as Ceann Comhairle, but towards the end of the Frank Fahy era when Galway South was a functional two-seater two other Fianna Fáil TDs were elected in 1948 ( http://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=1948&cons=128 ), likely benifitting from some old CG partisans within Fine Gael not giving later preferences to the staunchly Republican Clann na Poblachta after their leading candidate overtook the FG candidate, but in 1951 ( http://www.electionsireland.org/result.cfm?election=1951&cons=128 ) the Fine Gael vote was up there and their governmental alliance with Clann na Poblachta after the 1948 elections apparently enabled their candidate Patrick Cawley to get the first non-Ceann Comhairle seat (although my guess is Fianna Fail won the other seat after the second count as well, as close as their top candidate was to a quota).  So there can be competition in two-seat constituencies in Ireland.

[Kevinstat]

West Brom East was actually a marginal in the '80's. West Brom West was Betty Boothroyd's seat.
[/quote]

I doubt there were that many safe Labour seats in the Midlands in the '80s.

[Kevinstat]

That blonde chick to that guy's right (in the picture, left in real life) seems into him.  Must have had a few.

[Kevinstat]

Dare I ask where the interest in this little corner of the world originates?

This site pretty much (starting with the old forum I think, which was in existence at the time of the 2003 Northern Ireland Assembly elections).  From a link there probably I discovered Nicholas Whyte's Northern Ireland elections site, have looked at practically every page (maybe not, but a majority I'm sure, and that includes the old (pre-1995 and pre-1993) Westminster/Assembly constituency and council pages, many of which I have looked at), and fell in love with Northern Irish politics (how is that possible, you might be thinking).  I have had an intense interest in redistricting since the late 90s, although I've gotten lazy with age and try to satisfy my redistricting cravings by prodding Trond on with whatever redistricting thread he's working on, sometimes posting suggestions for Maine and other New England states.  The recently (finally) concluded (maybe not formally) redrawing of Northern Ireland's Westminster constitencies and the abortive local government consolidation which may have scared the local politicos into resolving their differences so they and not Westminster could control the reshaping of local government) further added to my interest.  I was not very pleased with the results of either, however, and was beginning to sour on Northern Irish politics when I started following the thread on the (ROI) Irish General election of 2007.

The Irish voting system (which Northern Ireland roughly shares) interested me, even though I am not a supporter of Instant Runoff Voting which the Single Transferable Vote reduces to in single-winner elections.  In IRV, and STV, supporters of a candidate can potentially help that candidate get elected by ranking him or her lower with respect to another, "push over" candidate to get him or her above a key rival of their favored candidate, who would reliably defeat the "push over" in a decisive round in the count, but the greater the number of candidates and winners, the more complicated the method and the less reliably people can use such mischievous (sp?) tactical voting (I feel differently about sacrificial, comprimising tactical voting like that commonly found with first past the post - it's the fact some voters have to do that if they want their votes count towards a preferable result for them that bugs me, but it doesn't seem paradoxical to me).  When I learned after the election that a redrawing of the Dáil and European Parliament constituencies was underway or was happening this year, my interest in ("Southern") Irish politics increased further.

I am quite euro-centric in my political interest: Canada (I think when people talk about eurocentricity they often include Europe's ancestral European-dominated former colonies like the U.S. and Canada), Ireland, the U.K., France and Germany intermitantly, Ukraine (only because my parents and I hosted an exchange student from L'viv and have kept in touch over the years - I've been there once, my parents three times), with a fleeting interest in Scandinavia.  As far as United States elections outside my homestate of Maine (where my most in-depth knowledge is, as good as my knowledge of other parts of the world may seem) are concerned, I tend to follow most closely the rest of New England (understandably) and Kentucky (bizarrely - I think it was that it seemed like an interesting state to try to redistrict early in this decade, and I thought seats like Anne Northrup's, Ernie Flecther's and particularly Ed Whitfield's were the kind of places the Democrats would need to gain back if they were to become dominant in the House again - well two out of three ain't bad, although the Democrats still aren't anywhere near pre-1994 numbers in the House which I still think would require winning seats like Whitfield's).

So, there's a rough rundown of my political (electoral) interest.  I could go into more detail, trust me, but I'll spare you.

[Kevinstat]

Hmmm... I've been thinking about doing something about Germany on British-sized constituencies recently...

Sounds interesting.  What's the current size of the Bundestag and what would it be with British-sized (English-sized and single-member I presume) constituencies?

Ooh - kind sir - please don't spare me!

You asked for it.  It won't be that much though.  Within Maine politics, I focus largely on state Legislative races.  I actually get interested in some political issues believe it or not, although they're generally ones that effect me as a political junkie: direct election of Maine's Constitutional officers and the state auditor (more elections), reducing the size of the Legislature (interesting redistricting, particularly with nesting, plus some of the bills to reduce the size of the Legislature that come out of the Revisor of Statutes office are sh*tty in terms of how they're worded and I have tried, unsuccesfully, to get the relevant committee to clean them up.  (The Maine Legislature's committees, apart from those like Engrossed Bills and Bills in the Second Reading which sometimes don't even meet over a two-year term and the occasionally important elections committees, are joint committees, and only one favorable vote is required to get a bill or resolution out of committee, so a lot of "old chestnut" bills get debated before the full House and Senate, or sometimes just voted on in the Senate, again and again.  An "Ought to Pass" or "Ought to Pass as Amended" report of the committee must be accepted in a chamber before that chamber can consider amendments,  and sometimes the only roll call vote on an issue in each chamber is on a flawed bill or in this case constitutional amendment resolution, and Legislators could use such flaws as justification for having voted to kill the proposal, even if they simply didn't want to potentially lose their seats in the case of reducing the size of the Legislature.)  I have spoken before the Joint Standing Committee on State and Local Government twice (well, three times not counting answers to questions but on two occasions) two years apart, once against a routinely proposed constitutional amendment to have two state Senators elected from each county (to heck with the U.S. Supreme Court, the sponsor, a conservative Republican from southern Aroostook County, seems to think, but he actually represents people in rural Penobscot County who would lose representation if his Constitutional amendment went into effect).  This spring I spoke on a couple proposals to provide four-year terms for Legislators (I was neutral on the concept but opposed to the stagerred terms proposed in one of them and the 12-year apportionment cycle the stupid revisors wrote in on the other (the committee actually tried to fix that but only ended up having the 12-year cycle start in 2003 instead of the existing 1983 in the proposal - that's when Maine started redistricting two years late as a matter of course - the House redistricting had been delayed two years in the 70s) and on four proposals to reduce the size of the Legislature.  Two of them wouldn't have had the reduction happen until the 2004 elections before which the state Legislature would be redistricted anyway, but the other two not only would have gone into effect for the 2008 elections but replaced the '1983' (the start of the 10-year apportionment cycle) with '2007' and thus would have delayed Maine's apportionment following future censuses by an additional four years.  I have to get ready for dinner, but hopefully people have found this interesting.