Ukrainian Parliamentary elections

[Kevinstat]

It seems from this page of the english language version of the Central Elections Commission of Ukraine that those voters who vote "against all" parties and blocs are not counted in the percentages listed for each party or bloc on that page or in the denominator in determining whether a party or bloc has met the 3% threshold.  At the time I started composing this reply, the "Bloc of Lytvyn" was listed as having 3.03% of the votes and had it's representative bar graph colored red (which seems to indicate that a bloc or party is meeting the 3% threshold, however it is defined, at that point in the count) even though 3.03% of the 97.79% of counted votes that are not votes "against all" is less than 3% of the total number of counted votes.  The percentages in that table added up total only 95.something % (I x'ed out of my computers calculator), which is less than 97.79%, so it's possible that votes "against all" are used in the denominator of the percentages of the vote listed on this page, and if so that it seems like those votes are also counted in the denominator in determining whether a party has met the 3% threshold, as the percentage listed for Litvin's bloc has now fallen to 2.99% and its representative bar graph is now colored blue (which seems to indicate that a bloc or party is not meeting the 3% threshold at that point in the count).  If the now-2.10% of votes counted that were cast "against all" parties and blocs were counted against the percentages in the table on this thread but not against a party or bloc meating the 3% threshold, than Litvin's bloc would likely now be colored red as 2.99% of the total counted vote would be greater than 3% of the 97.9% of the votes that are not cast "against all."

So basically, I'm pretty sure that whatever percentages are used in the table in this page are the ones which, if calculated the same way when the vote count is complete, will indicate a party has passed the 3% threshold if greater than 3.00% and not passed it if less than 3.00%.

Okay, that was probably a mondo waste of time.  But hey, it was kind of fun.

[Kevinstat]

Based on what I've read on the Wikipedia article on this election, representation in the Verkhovna Rada (Ukraine's parliament) among those parties and blocs exceeding the 3% threshold is not proportional to the parties/blocs relative percentages of the vote but their relative percentages of the vote above (excluding, not as a strict "percentage over", it seems based on the article) that 3% threshold.  In addition to (paraphrasing text from the article as it currently stands but to an extent where I feel I should use quotation marks) "distorts the proportionality of the ballot in favor of major parties," this makes a party or bloc like Lytvyn/Litvin's Bloc (that has recently hovered around the 3% mark)'s ability or failure to meet the 3% threshold less important to the overall results, as that bloc will not receive several seats rather than none merely by ending up on the right side of that 3% threshold.  If a possible coalition of parties and/or blocs is on the bubble as to whether or not it will command a majority of seats in the Verkhovna Rada, that is an important fact.  It means there won't likely be German PDS in 2002-style apprehension as to the effective result of the election where a party's ability or failure to meat the threshold makes or breaks (or rather breaks or makes) the possibility of a plausible coalition (in Germany's case it was the existing coalition of the SDP and the Greens, which as we all know didn't survive the next parlimentary election) to govern with a majority, or at all.  In fact, it might be the case that if a party only received 3.01% of whatever vote the threshold is defined as 3% of, it would still fail to receive any seats because it's percentage of the vote excluding 3%, when compared to those percentages of all other parties meeting the threshold, is not enough for that party to be awarded a seat.  .01%, as a percentage of [100% - 3% * 5 (for, say five other party's meeting the 3% threshold) - what now looks like 20% (actually just under, so I'm being generous to this hypothetical party by taking a little smidgin more from the denominator) of voters who voted for parties that failed to meet the threshold] is .0013%, which is only 6.9% of 1/450.  So unless each party that meets the 3% threshold is automatically gets 1 seat or (equivilently actually as long as it isn't 3% exactly) the proportional representation, as it is calculated, has a quota formula that results in an infinite multiplier (and thus priority value) for the first seat, like would be the intuitive multiplier for a state's first seat in the U.S. House of Representatives under our equal proportions formula (I won't desribe that in detail but if you want to know more you can PM me), unless one of those two things (to get things back on focus), a party with 3.01% of the vote likely wouldn't be awarded any seats.  It would probably take something along the lines of 3.07% of the vote or more for a bloc party to gain a seat in the Verkhovna Rada in that case.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Kevinstat]

I just discovered a blog with a table that seems to back up what I read on Wikipedia on the allocation of seats in the Ukrainian parliament (for this election - earlier elections were held under a half-single member district IFPP, half-PR system where the threshold was 4% and the allocation formula may have been different).  If you scroll down a wee bit, you'll see a table showing the results of a couple exit polls, which for some parties/blocs are way off from where the results are at this point in the count.  But anyway, what I hope you all can focus on is not the relative standing of the parties, but the number of seats each party or bloc is projected to awarded in relation to it's percentage of the vote received.  Only the three highest-polling parties or blocs (Yanukovich's, Tymoshenko's, and Yushchenko's) are shown as being projected to win a greater percentage of seats than their respective projected percentages of the vote, with the four or three other parties or blocs projected to pass the 3% threshold in the first or second exit poll cited (respectively) shown as being projected to win a smaller percentage of seats than their respective percentages of the vote.  In neither table does the total number of seats add up to 450 (in spite of what the tables say), but in each table the number of seats projected to be awarded to each party as a percentage of the total number of seats (which is less than 450 in each table) seems to be right in line with that parties percenage of the vote when those parties receiving less than 3% discounted AN 3% subtracted from every other party (including both in the numerator and the denominator for the party in question).

It's possible that the person who runs this blog is wrong, but seeing this allocation formula used or assumed in two sites makes me inclined to believe it.  Athough it could be this blogger used Wikipedia as a source or that the person who edited the Wikipedia article to mention this alleged allocation formula could have used this blog as a source, or could even be that blogger.  So we'll just have to wait and see.

[Kevinstat]

Well, that was another major waste of time.  Although it is fun to imagine what it would be like if such a system as the guy in Wikipedia described was in place.

Thanks for the information, ag.  It still looks like Tymoshenko's and Yushchonco's blocs together might win enough seats to form a majority without the Socialists, although it's less clear and more dependent on no sixth party passing the 3% threshold than it would be under the false "Wikipedia method".  If the eastern, pro-Yanukovich areas are still undercounted, it's possible that the combined Party of Regions + Socialist + Communist vote will overtake the combined vote of the two main "Orange" parties.  The Socialists in Ukraine seem to be allinged with the "Orange" parties anyway, but their political philosophy might be further from that of the two "Orange" parties than those two parties are from each other.  I'm sure you would have a better idea about that than I, ag.

[Kevinstat]

At 6:01 PM local time with 83.40% of the vote counted it stands as follows:


Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 30.59% 177 seats [corrected from 171 - the seat allocation hasn't changed since I made this post]
Timoshenko's Bloc 22.40%% 130 seats
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 15.01% 87 seats
Sociallists 6.04% 35 seats
Communists 3.61% 21 seats
Vitrenko's Bloc 2.62%
Litvin's Bloc 2.49%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.07%
Viche 1.59%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.48%
"Rennaissance" 1.03%

Against All 1.74%

[Kevinstat]

It will be interesting when this is all said and done to see how many seats you would have to add or take away from 450 to find an example of the Alabama Paradox, where a party such as the Socialists or Communists would lose a seat if there were one additional seat in parliament and gain one if there were one fewer seat.  It is called the Alabama Paradox because such an example regarding the state of Alabama was discovered during a decennial Congressional apportionment in the late-1800's (the one following the 1880 census, I believe) when this same method was used for Congressional apportionment, even though an example of this paradox regarding another state (Delaware, I think) had been discovered (although perhaps not as well publicised) a decade or two earlier.  Whatever the results of the election are, for an unlimited range of number of seats you could surely find examples where each party not in the top two experience this paradox (as an additional seat moves the larger parties decimal quota of seats up more than the smaller parties, and if two larger parties passed a smaller party when a seat was added that party would lose a seat), but what is less certain is if there will be a number of seats greater than 450 (not just one greater) such that the Communists, Socialists, and/or (extremely unlikely) Yushchenko's Bloc would be allotted one fewer seat than they will have in the 450-member parliament or if there will be a number of seats less than 450 such that one or more of those parties would be allotted one more seat than they will be allotted in the 450-member parliament.  It's possible that the nearest example of the Alabama Paradox for each of those parties is with far enough away from 450 seats that party would have already gained (or lost) a seat or more before they would lose (or gain) a seat back as a result of adding (or subtrating) a seat from a hypothetically adjustable total size of the Ukrainian parliament.

I hope someone other than me finds at least some of that interesting.

[Kevinstat]

At 9:57 PM local time with only 1.94% more (89.45% total) of protocols reporting, Yanukovich's party increased it's percentage of the vote by over a tenth and a half (of a tenth) and took a seat away from the Socialists.

Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 30.87% 178 seats
Timoshenko's Bloc 22.50% 130 seats
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 14.78% 87 seats
Socialists 5.93% 34 seats
Communists 3.62% 21 seats
Vitrenko's Bloc 2.69% (still moving up as the count proceeds, but too little, too late it seems)
Litvin's Bloc 2.47%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 2.02%
Viche 1.62%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.50%
"Rennaissance" 1.00% (they may soon no longer be worthy of a mention in the Wikipedia table, whose creator set a 1% standard for the inclusion of parties and blocs)

Against All 1.74%

[edited only to correct errors]

[Kevinstat]

At 6:37 PM on Wednesday, 3/29 w/ 93.27% reporting

Party of Regions (Yanukovich) 31.27% 181 seats
Timoshenko's Bloc 22.49% 130 seats
Our Ukraine (Yuschenko) 14.48% 84 seats
Sociallists 5.87% 34 seats
Communists 3.62% 21 seats
Vitrenko's Bloc 2.75%
Litvin's Bloc 2.45%
Kostenko and Plusch Bloc (orange splinter) 1.97%
Viche 1.66%
Pora-PRP (orange splinter) 1.49%
"Rennaissance" 0.98% (they're below 1% for the first time since very early in the count)
Opposition bloc "Ne Tak!" 0.97%

Against All 1.75%