IOWA POLL

[Kevinstat]

In some ways, Dean might be better off by losing Iowa then by winning, because if he wins Iowa then Gephart's support in New Hampshire will likely collapse and mostly go to Kerry, helping Kerry in that state.  If Gephart wins Iowa, however, he will likely do whatever he can to finish as strongly as possible in New Hampshire, further dividing the anti-Dean vote.  I'm sure overall Dean is better off winning Iowa then losing it, and even as far as New Hampshire is concerned the momentum gained by winning Iowa might more than compensate having one fewer candidate splitting the rest of the votes, but it's interesting to think of the possible side effects.

My vote above was that Gephart would win Iowa, but I'm already changing my mind.  If Dean is still seen as the national frontrunner, I think there may be a shift towards him in the weeks before the primary, just like there was a shift to Gore (at Bill Bradley's expense) in New Hampshire in 2000 shortly before that primary.  Still, Bradley had been living a Cinderella story before his collase and may have been more likely to have his support crack than Gephart, who has built up support over more than a decade.  In fact, if any candidate has been living a Cinderella story in this race, it's Howard Dean, and he may turn out to be just as much of a flash in the pan as Bradley.  I believe whatever candidates appear less desparate for gains in Iowa (from whereever the polls are at the time) will get a shift in their favor shortly before the primary.  If Gephart can open a strong lead over Dean in the Iowa polls and Dean's lead in New Hampshire is small (even if it's over someone other then Gephart), than I think there's a chance Dean's candidacy will collapse.  Those are some very big ifs, however.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau