Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Kevinstat]

What do people think about the EKOS Research Poll from November 26 that puts the Liberals within striking distance over the course of the campaign of a majority government?  I've heard Ekos polls tend to overestimate support for more left-wing parties, but I get the sense from the accompanying article ( http://www.thestar.com/NASApp/cs/ContentServer?pagename=thestar/Layout/Article_Type1&call_pageid=971358637177&c=Article&cid=1132960213015 ) that the results of this poll are significantly better for the Liberals than the results of the last poll.  So what do our Canadian posters (and others too) think?  Was this whole sponsergate scandal a blip in a long run of Liberal dominance or will Canadians not see a Liberal majority government for some time to come?  Or is the truth somewhere in the middle, like perhaps it will take a few years or a full five-year period after the coming election for the Liberals to again win a majority?

[Kevinstat]

Are the Conservatives ahead in any provinces? (since they're up 1 point nationally, and down 7 in the praries, they should be up somehere[?])

They could be behind the Grits in some provinces, and behind the Dippers in others, but still have the largest support overall according to the same poll because they are close enough to each of the other parties (not counting the BQ, which will only be the second largest party when the federalist opposition parties are badly divided, and then only likely in terms of seats rather than % support) in the provinces where they are behind that party and far enough ahead of each party in the provinces where the tories are ahead of that other party that they are actually in the lead nationwide.  That could theoretically happen in a general election, but is very unlikely.

Sincerely,

Kevin Lamoreau

[Kevinstat]

11 points?

how does this translate seat wise? is there a natural liberal advantage in the way ridings are drawn which will offset this a bit?

Actually, the tories have a natural advantage

Well, the party that has a disadvantage in terms of winning a plurality of seats (meaning the other major party would likely win a plurality if the "popular vote" nationwide was a near-dead heat) could also be the one that was more insulated against a complete rout, since the party's disadvantage in a very close election could be that it's voters are concentrated in a sizable number of constituencies but not enough to have a good shot at winning a plurality of seats if the nationwide vote is nearly even and traditional models of support hold reasonably well.  There may be no traditional model of support in Canada, but what I'm saying is the same sort of factors that could advantage one party in the race for a plurality could make it so that party would have to do better in regards to the other major party and the other parties than the other party would to win, say, a majority government, or at least there would likely have to be a point at which that party would likely have less of an edge seat-wise with the same margin vote-wise, even if that point was above the point at which that party would likely win a majority or do well enough to have the option of a lengthy minority government without having to walk on egg shells.

I'm curious as to whether those in the know think an 11-point margin for the tories with the percentages for the NDP and the Bloc what they are in that Ipsos poll would likely result in a larger plurality (and a majority is still a plurality, in the inclusive and probably the dictionary sense) for the Conservatives than the Liberals would win with the same margin and the same percentages for the other two parties, or a lesser one.

[Kevinstat]

A "darkhorse" riding to look at is also Edmonton Strathcona, Jafer might actually be in trouble for the Tories.

Seriously? Who from?

I imagine he's thinking from the NDP, even though they came in third here last time.  http://www.electionprediction.org/ has a lot of people predicting an NDP gain in Edmonton Strathcona, and only one person predicting a Liberal gain.  The riding is "called" by the site's editor (the editor takes into accout user predictions in making the calls, but weights the comments by certain factors such that even a 99/1 split in predictions for the NDP in a rock solid Conservative riding wouldn't likely have that riding called for them, although I'm not absolutely sure about that) as a Conservative hold, but was moved (at least for the most recent time, as ridings can and have been moved to Too Close to Call) into the Conservative column (from Too Close to Call) on December 12, later than many ridings were called.  You can go to http://www.electionprediction.org/2005_fed/riding/48018-edmonton-strathcona.htm to view the predictions and comments made for that riding.