Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[Kevinstat]

It's been interesting reading this thread.  I remember reading a post of yours, Tender, at toward the end of 2010, going into a period of a whole year (maybe two) with no state or major federal elections, that the FPÖ had momentum and, with the Greens entering government in Vienna, that they would suffer in the polls as a "government party" along with the SPÖ and ÖVP).  Care to summarize what happened in these last two years, which seemed like they were supposed to be "quiet years" politically in Austria, that brought things to where they are now?

[Kevinstat]

I think there are no more polls ahead of Sunday's Tyrol state election.

So here's my prediction:

34.5% ÖVP
13.5% SPÖ
12.5% Greens
11.5% VT
10.5% FPÖ
  5.0% BKT
  5.0% FRITZ
  4.5% TS
  1.0% KPÖ
  1.0% Pirates
  1.0% FT

Turnout: 63.5%

...

What are your predictions ?

Here are all the polls:

http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Landtagswahl_in_Tirol_2013#Umfragen

You may have done this previously, but can you briefly describe in English the ideologies of VT, BKT and FRITZ.  And, while you're at it, why not FT (even though you only think they'll get 1%)?.  Which of those are Tyrol-only parties?  The other parties are affialiates of national parties which I broadly know the ideology of.  (TS stands for Team Stronach right?)

[Kevinstat]

What are Vorwarts Tirol and Liste Fritz?

Tyrolian politics is special:

I think we have to start in the early 90s for an explanation. Back then, the Tyrol-ÖVP was so dominant in the state (getting 60% in state elections and having most mayors), that they allowed "split-off-ÖVP-lists" to run in elections to offer "more choices". Which means that these lists were made up by ÖVP-party members, but they ran on their own platforms and list names and after the election joined forces with the ÖVP again (primarily in the towns).

This changed when the FI won in Innsbruck and when the (Fritz) Dinkhauser List won 18% in the 2008 state elections. FI (For Innsbruck) and the Dinkhauser List are ÖVP-splinter groups that had enough of the ÖVP playbook and decided to go on confrontation course with the mother party. FI with Christine Oppitz-Plörer now has the mayor of Innsbruck, the capital.

"Vorwärts Tyrol" (Tyrol Forward) is a new list backed by the FI and Christine Oppitz-Plörer, with popular politicians from the SPÖ and the ÖVP "mother party", like Anna Hosp. There's a good chance they will get close to 15-20% in the state election.

The "split-off" strategy from the 90s-ÖVP might come back to haunt them now, because the new lists are now acting much more independently than in the early 90s.

Dinkhauser meanwhile stepped down for health reasons (heart problems) and the Dinkhauser List is therefore down to 5-7% from 18% in 2008.

I partially answered my last question by stumbling on this old post.

[Kevinstat]

I like the idea of a Black-Green-Pink coaliton, but the numbers aren't there. Even if Neos gets in (and the BZÖ doesn't), they would get c. 7 or 8 seats. ÖVP 47, Greens 30 - Around 85 max. It would need the other two partners to be doing better than at the moment.

What about Red-Green-Pink?  The SPÖ governed with the FPÖ in the early 80s and I've gotten the sense that the Liberal Forum, which is included in the NEOS lists, saw itself as a successor of sorts to the pre-Haider FPÖ.  Of course the SPÖ might have changed significantly in this time.  I think Tender described it as now being "a party of retirees and for retirees."  A party whose list includes "Young Liberals Austria" might not be compatible with such a party, but it's a thought.  The numbers might be short there as well (and that's assuming NEOS gets in which is doubtful), but it doesn't seem as far-fetched mathematically as a Black-Green-Pink coalition.

[Kevinstat]

49% for the SPÖVP "Grand Coalition"
49% for the Opposition (FPÖ/Greens/TS/BZÖ/NEOS)

Wow!

Of course all it takes is for either the BZÖ or NEOS not to get in for SPÖVP to have a pretty sure, although still embarrassingly small majority of seats, and under these figures they would be on the cusp of retaining a majority even with 7 parties in.

What coalitions would be likely in that poll, if you assume the BZÖ and NEOS both get in and the Opposition finishes just ahead of (or more relevantly, gets one more seat) than SPÖVP?