I'm very surprised at upstate New York
Gore did phenominally well there in 2000, losing only 4 of the then-congressional districts in the state (although I believe he lost 6 of the districts that were created after redistricting). So the shift toward Bush in upstate New York could partly (or even mostly) be a shift back to the normal partisan ballance in that part of the state. Some of the shift toward Bush probably has to do with changing perceptions of Bush due to his reaction to the September 11 attacks as well. For a while, people were talking about New York state actually being in play. Kerry won handily this year, but Bush had a "net gain" (Bush's % of the vote in 2004 - Kerry's % of the vote 2004 - Bush's % of the vote in 2000 + Gore's % of the vote 2000) of 3.3% between his two elections, and it's not surprising to me that Upstate New York swung to him by enough that most counties there had at least some swing toward him.
Sincerely,
Kevin Lamoreau
