GOP house gains in 2012? (user search)
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  GOP house gains in 2012? (search mode)
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Author Topic: GOP house gains in 2012?  (Read 19336 times)
Kevinstat
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« on: November 12, 2010, 12:04:43 AM »

Maine is not going to gerrymander no matter who is in control. It's not in their culture with just two districts. The state already has a clear sense of identity that has Portland on one side and other cities on the other, the legislature is not going to put towns in extreme southern Maine with Lewiston and Houlton just to get an R+1 district.

I'm quite sure "culture" can be put aside when there's partisan advantage to be had. I could also see them redistricting early (it's easily explained away as "synchronising") to protect the Republican legislature in 2012, as well as create a toss-up House seat and electoral vote.

Legislative redistricting in Maine before 2013 (and legislative redistricting in Maine done by the Legislature without 2/3 support in each chamber, which the Republicans don't have), would require a state constitutional amendment, which itself requires a 2/3 vote in each house of the Legislature.  There are similar statutory provisions for congressional and county commissioner redistricting in Maine, but the relevent sections, subsections, and whatnot could be amended or "notwithstood" by a law enacting new plans for those districts which could be passed and signed by the Governor as easily as "normal" legislation.  I could see the Republicans redrawing Maine's congressional districts next year, but I could easily see them deciding not to risk negative PR on an early (based on current Maine law, which should have been fixed long ago regarding the timing of redistricting) and partisan redistricting.
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