Bulgarian presidential election - November 6, 2016

[GMantis]

In case you are unable or unwilling to watch, it's Doncheva (first from the left), a sheep, a wolf and a bale of hay in a boat in the middle of Iskar Reservoir. "It's possible". Is very sad. Is also not good boat.

I think this is a play on the old story of how someone can transport a sheep, a wolf and a bale of hay with a boat that can take only two of each without the wolf eating the sheep or the sheep the hay.

[GMantis]

The first results are rather surprising considering all the polls until now (though the illegal exit polls got it right).

Rumen Radev: 24-26.7%
Tsetska Tsacheva: 22.5-23.5%
Krasimir Karakachanov: 13.6-15%
Veselin Mareshki: 8.3-10.2%
Traycho Traykov: 6.8-7.1%
Plamen Oresharski: 5.8-6.9%
Ivaylo Kalfin 3.4-4%
Against all: 5.5-6.2%

This should give Radev a very high chance of winning the second round, unless Karakachanov explicitly supports Tsacheva (and perhaps not even in this case).

The three referendums seem to have passed, but without sufficient turnout to come into force without parliamentary approval (which likely won't happen).

[GMantis]

Will Borisov call for early elections seriously if Tsacheva will lose or it was just a bullsh**t for the campaign needs?

The wording of his pledge was vague enough to allow him to take it back if she finished second (he pledged he would resign if she lost the first round, which could mean not winning or not qualifying for the run-off). On the other hand, some have speculated that he chose such an awful candidate because he wanted to lose and have the opportunity to call for early elections at an advantageous moment.

[GMantis]

Will Borisov call for early elections seriously if Tsacheva will lose or it was just a bullsh**t for the campaign needs?

The wording of his pledge was vague enough to allow him to walk it back if she finished second (he pledged he would resign if she lost the first round). On the other hand, some have speculated that he chose such an awful candidate because he wanted to lose and have the opportunity to call for early elections at an advantageous moment.

Wouldn't loosing in presidential elections cause ending of that advantageous moment? Is it possible that after such compromitation GERB would lose early elections. Although I know that they are still leading in polls I wonder if society is able to do such rapid change.

Perhaps to some extent, but presidential elections are to a large extent dependent on the personal quality of the candidates, unlikely parliamentary elections (and in the case where they have an effect, it's in GERB's favor due to Borisov's personal popularity). GERB is much more popular than Tsacheva and BSP is much less popular than Radev.

[GMantis]

An excellent analysis, Beagle and quite fair from my point of view, considering the obvious differences in our political views. Though I do have some quibles...

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Vote fraud can however have effects in local elections, where the electorate is smaller. GERB in particular was particularly egregious in 2011 and to a lesser extent in 2015, where I suppose their coalition partner restrained them to an extent.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Judging by the initial results, DPS has not been seriously weakened by Mestan's defection, so there is little hope there for GERB.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The claim that Parvanov won because of DPS is dubious, considering that as you pointed out Indzhova who DPS supported in the first round won only 140 thousand. In addition, DPS won only 340 thousand votes in the 2001 parliamentary elections and turnout was notably lower during the presidential election in the provinces with a large Turkish population. In my opinion, Parvanov might have lost if DPS had backed Stoyanov (though narrowly), but would have still won if they did not issue an endorsement.
As for 2011, DPS probably contributed as many as 350 thousand voters for Kalfin in 2011. I think it would be somewhat unlikely that they would have been able to supply another 260 thousand.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This assumes that they will remain 2000 (which is unlikely considering likely future immigration, plus chain immigration if they become legal residents). There is also the fact that there is no screening and that Germany would likely keep the best immigrants for themselves and out-load the rest to other EU countries.
And of course, there is the principle that we shouldn't be the dumping ground for people who were invited in the EU by another country.

are employing far-right rhetoric against the refugees, vote for extreme left candidates.

This seems unlikely, considering that BSP's supporters have never been the kind of people who would look kindly upon the emigration of Muslim Mid-Easterners  that are so common in European left parties. You can find more of these among the supporters of the RB.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This was actually disputed, since the constitution states that the president may be re-elected once. Since Parvanov is not running for re-election, it could be argued that he is eligible. Of course it's the Constitutional court who decides the correct interpretation and considering who appointed the current court, it's unlikely that they would support such an interpretation.

I think 'chinless wonder' might be the right expression to describe the public image Traykov has. He was given (somewhat against his will) the unenviable task of trying to unite the various factions of the RB behind his candidacy and also to peel off pro-Western GERB supporters who may be wavering in light of the Tsacheva candidacy and some... interesting recent observations by Boyko Borisov (for instance: "The Occidental countries must stop exporting democracy and apologize for the bombs and missiles they've dropped over Libya and Syria"). Obviously Traykov can't do that, but he'll have to get 200k votes, otherwise one more of the RB parties has promised to leave the government.

This might be a factor, but Tsacheva is a particularly unpleasant candidate for highly educated voters who are disproportionately represented in RB.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I don't think that Trifonov for all his faults was as much as a Mafia man or would have gone as far in subverting democracy as Borisov. More than likely he would have gotten bored in fairly short order and probably not last a full term.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It says a lot (and nothing good) about the framers of the constitution that they considered the number of parliamentary deputies more important than the way they would be elected, considering that there is nothing about the later in the constitution.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It is also likely that it will be struck down by the Constitutional court, since the Constitution strictly defines who is barred from voting (prisoners and those judged mentally incompetent) and banning anyone else from voting is an obvious violation.

My first round vote for president is obviously Traykov. Even if he wasn't the only unabashedly pro EU/US candidate in the race, and even if he didn't support the judicial reform that I find vitally important, he'd still have my vote as a fellow bookish dweeb. Plus he's warning against state capture and he refers to the Donald as a 'post-truth politician', so he's reading the same books I am.

With all respect to your political positions, I find this statement somewhat strange, considering that both Tsacheva and Radev support Bulgaria's continued EU and NATO membership. And both GERB and BSP lead a staunchly pro-EU/US foreign policy when they're in power, regardless of their public rhetoric. Unless Traykov intends to move his office to the US embassy, I hardly see how he can significantly surpass them in this aspect.

[GMantis]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I think this is putting it too strongly. Last name with the same root as the first name might be considered somewhat provincial, but alterations don't have such a reputation.

It should be noted that Tsacheva does have a name problem since her first name is one that seems quite old fashioned and rustic, as well as somewhat childish.

[GMantis]

Mantis, did you return to the BSP fold this election?

Yes. Not so much because of the BSP who I still don't trust after all the sheenanigans they've pulled over the years, but because I feel that Radev is the best candidate running (with the possible exception of Velisar Enchev, but he has no chance of winning).

[GMantis]

Hm, I personally was surprised to see Izmir (Smyrna) vote for Tsacheva, Bursa close to a 50:50 split and Istanbul having a sizable GERB vote. Even Kardzhali did not produce a majority win for Oresharski, just a plurality. Mestan has already done better than any of the other DPS spin-offs, iirc. But you and I both know that what happens between DPS and DOST is not going to be determined in Bulgaria alone...

Exit polls showed that Oresharski still got over 60% of the Turkish vote and only between a half and a third of the rest went to Tsacheva. So Mestan probably did not manage to get more than about a sixth or fifth of DPS voters. Still impressive, especially considering the votes he's likely to gain from Turkey.

I must mention, though, that the electoral rules referendum pt.2 - electric boogaloo fell just 13 000 votes short of being binding. The major parties have promised to implement it (in some form) nonetheless. There is a lot of pre-second round posturing in this pledge, of course, but compulsory voting will certainly be extended to referendums (referenda?) and the party subsidies will be reduced. From what I gather, the GERB idea is to split the 240 MPs, having half elected proportionally, either through a nationwide list, or more likely in multi-member districts like now, and half - in single member districts. We'll see if they have the time and/or the will to pass it through.

This is probably the time to mention that when the President is in the last three months of his term, parliament is not dissolved when a caretaker government is appointed. So there is plenty of time for GERB to introduce single member districts voting and guarantee (looking at the analysis presented earlier) a absolute majority even with a reduced lead against BSP.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

I find this unlikely. DPS would probably want elections earlier before DOST manages to become even stronger, the nationalists might very well want them so they could form a coalition before their hasty unity disappears and BSP would look really ridiculous voting for a GERB government.

[GMantis]

The first exit polls of the run-off have been released and Radev has won in a landslide:

Radev: 58.1-58.5%
Tsacheva: 35.3-35.7%
Against all: 5.8-6.6%

This improves upon the previous record victory margin, Peter Stoyanov's 18% in 1996 (I'm not counting Parvanov's blowout victory in 2006, since he wasn't facing serious opposition).

[GMantis]

While Radev's victory was very likely, it certainly wasn't expected to be by this margin. Of all the major first round candidates only Traikov's supporters supported Tsacheva over Radev (and a surprising percentage of them did vote for him).

[GMantis]

As to the more pressing issue on the government crisis - Borisov is submitting his resignation tomorrow. Parliament can vote on it as soon as Wednesday - after Borisov's statement, there is no chance it gets rejected. After that the current president needs to offer the mandate to GERB, BSP and a party of his choice. My reading of the constitution is that the president can postpone starting this procedure, but once it starts, it has to finish in 3 weeks at the most. And for many reasons it's unlikely for Plevneliev to stall for 3 months so that Radev gets to appoint a caretaker government of his own. Probably the likeliest scenario is for Plevneliev and Radev to settle on a mutually acceptable caretaker prime minister and key ministers, but, of course, Radev is free to dismiss the Plevneliev cabinet and appoint a caretaker government of his own after he is inaugurated.

There is apparently further complication - if this reading of the constitution is to be believed - the president can't actually set a new date for the elections without dissolving parliament and since Plevneliev currently is unable to dissolve parliament the very date of the election will not be known until Radev comes into office and dissolves parliament.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Why would ABV agree to such an obviously suicidal move? Of course there are plenty of independent deputies which can be bribed, so GERB probably doesn't need them.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

As if looking ridiculous ever stopped the BSP I'm currently listening to them berating Borisov for resigning. I can't think of any other example of a main opposition party demanding that the sitting government stay in power.
[/quote]
There is nothing ridiculous in berating Borisov for resigning. First, there is the fact that Borisov irresponsibly caused the fall of the government at the worst possible time (no budget has been passed, the referendum results must be considered within three months, complicated formation of a caretaker government due to President's term running out) for perfectly petty reasons - his unwillingness to face his first defeat in an sensible manner and insistence to turn it into national drama. The second is that he somehow is attempting to blame the opposition for his resignation and subsequent early elections.

[GMantis]

Here are the Presidential elections results by municipality: first round (above) and second round (below).

[GMantis]

Here are the Presidential elections results by municipality: first round (above) and second round

Thank you so much! Is this the first time that 6 candidates/parties have won municipalities (well, Sofia districts in Traykov's case)?

No, there was also the 2009 parliamentary election.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's good that you mentioned Primorsko, since this is a mistake! It is supposed to be over 40% for GERB in the first round. I have now corrected the map. I hope there are not any other mistakes, though this sometimes happens with the amount of data that has to be entered manually. I did specifically check a few other results that seemed suspicious (for example, whether Boynitsa really became a GERB stronghold or whether Venets really switched from voting to the DPS supported Oresharski to Tsacheva in the second round).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No, I used this map from Wikipedia. Though I have modified it several times, to add missing municipalities and adjust for border changes.