2011 Presidential and Local elections in Bulgaria

[GMantis]

Since the elections are on the 23th, it's high time that I wrote something about them (it's not as if anyone else is going to do it )
In a rare outbreak of common sense, the Presidential and local elections have been combined and (contrary to earlier rumors) the voting will be held in one booth And this is where the good news end

Now, the first post will be about the presidential elections and the next about the Local ones. You can find basic information about the elections here and here.

This time there have been a surprising number of candidates for President - 18 in total, but only three have any chance:
Leading the pack is the ruling party GERB's candidate Rosen Plevneliev, until recently Minister of Regional Development. He has received much of the credit for the recent infrastructure projects the government completed and while the quality of most of those is rather dubious, the media dominated by GERB has managed to spin them into a major achievement and as a result, he surpassed the Prime Minister Boyko Borisov in popularity . It has been suggested, in fact, that this is the reason for him being nominated. In any case, since he became appearing more widely in public, it became quickly obvious that he is mediocre to the last degree and completely unsuitable for the position, as well as being totally subservient to Borisov. Whether most voters will realize this is another matter, as an adoring media consistently portrays him in the best light possible.

The candidate of the Bulgarian Socialist Party is Ivaylo Kalfin who was foreign minister in the last government. That government became extremely unpopular at the end,  but Kalfin was among the few popular ministers and so was a logical choice for the BSP. Thanks to his VP candidate - very popular actor Stefan Danailov and BSP loyal core, he's currently second.

The third candidate is former European commissioner Meglena Kuneva, who is running as independent. As the first Bulgarian commissioner, she is somewhat popular, but this is offset by her controversial policies as Bulgaria's negotiator with the EU. Most notably, she is blamed for the closing of some of the reactors of Bulgaria's only nuclear reactor. Kuneva still has a chance to finish second, though the media almost completely ignores her, probably because she would be a more dangerous opponent to Borisov.

Few of the other candidates are worth discussing. Notable is Volen Siderov, the leader of the nationalist Ataka, who finished second the last elections, but will be lucky to finish fifth this time.

Here are some polls. However, the results of the polls are problematic, to put it mildly, as many of the agencies have been bought by GERB (NCIOM and CAM, for example) and many respondents refuse to answer questions. So surprises are definitely possible.

Agency      Plevneliev    Kalfin       Kuneva            Others                Date
    
MBMD      41-43          28-29%   16-17%            11-15%       20th October
Mediana      36%           28%         21%                 15%                     13-17 October
NCIOM      30%           21%         8%          NA*                     12-17 October
CAM      49%           26%         14%          11%       30 September - 9 October
Gallup      29%           21            11%          NA*                     28 September - 8 October
Gallup      44%           25%         21%          10%       8-15 September   

Some second round polls:

Agency   Plevneliev   Kalfin       Date
NCIOM   61%                 39%    12-17 October   
CAM   69%                 31%    30 September - 9 October
Gallup   62%                 38%    28 September - 8 October      
Gallup   65%                 35%    8-15 September

Agency   Plevneliev   Kuneva       Date
NCIOM   67%                 33%       12-17 October
Gallup   59%                 41%       28 September - 8 October      
Gallup   57%                 43%       8-15 September
   
Note that many agencies do not calculate results as the percentage of those voting, but only as the percentage of all voters. I've recalculated those who had full information about other candidates and non-voters, while those which didn't are marked with an *.





   
   
   

[GMantis]

Bulgaria is divided into 264 municipalities (map). Each one elects a mayor and a municipal council. In addition, settlements which are not centers of municipalities elect their own mayors. Only settlements over a certain size have a right to do so, otherwise a mayor is appointed by the mayor of the municipality. It's been a longstanding quarrel how big the threshold is supposed to be, with the BSP insisting on a lower number and right wing parties on a higher one. Currently it's 350.
In addition, the three largest cities - Sofia, Plovdiv and Varna are divided into districts, who also have a mayor. Last time these position was elected, but the electoral law passed by the current government made them appointed (that's another issue in which right-wing parties and BSP have different opinions).

As I don't think that foreigners will be that interested in individual races (though if you're interested, feel free to ask), I'll give out some general highlights.
There are two interesting moments in these elections: how effective will GERB be in their total war to take over as much as possible of local positions and how the MRF (Movement for Rights and Freedom, Turkish party) will do now that they're not in power.
GERB is using all legal and not so legal methods to achieve a landslide in these elections. Most notably, they're persuading many incumbent mayors to switch sides (the Mayor of Varna was their biggest catch). On the other hand, they are also running some rather suspicious characters, including mayors with sentences and under investigation. Obviously, loyalty trumps everything in GERB.
MRF, on the other hand, for the first time in 12 years is running as an opposition party. That doesn't seem to have much of an effect on them, what with GERB being rather cozy with them, despite election promises. Only lately has there been an effort to remove voters living abroad (who are not permitted to vote in local elections and are often crucial to the efforts of the MRF) from the rolls but they have not been very successful, considering that the rolls contain 6.4 million voters - perhaps more than 250 thousands than there should be. On the other hand, recent ethnic tensions are being used to rally MRF voters, so even with corrected voting rolls, they might achieve or improve last time's results.

[GMantis]

Perhaps what's more important than the candidates in these not very exciting elections is how far GERB will go to win them.
First, they have an enormous financial advantage over all their opponents, which apart from  legitimate purposes, can be used for many of the shady deals I point out below.
They control almost all the media and many polling agencies (including those who will conducting the exit polls), which is very convenient if they are disputes about the results.
As I pointed out already, they have managed to persuade (who knows how) many candidates for mayor to switch on their side.
They have modified the electoral law in their favor (though previous government have done this as well).
They have hired (in an obvious conflict of interest) a great number of electoral representatives and have reportedly created faux-parties through which they will be able to get even more representatives.
They have brought enormous pressure to bear on voters outside the main cities (for example, the interior minister leads the election headquarters of GERB) and have created an atmosphere where many people refuse to answer questions and according to some polling agencies are more afraid than they were in 20 years.
Of course vote buying will again be a huge problem and who could benefit better than the party with most money than them?
All in all, there are serious concerns that the election results will be falsified, though of course this is being vociferously denied by Borisov.

[GMantis]

How powerful is the Bulgarian President?

Not very. He can't dissolve Parliament, fire the Prime Minister and can only delay the passing of laws. He has various powers which he only implements the decisions of the Prime Minister and Parliament. He does have the right to appoint a certain number of judges on the High Courts, to grant pardons, to appoint a caretaker government and in certain (limited) cases influence the appointment of a new government. Basically, he has enough power to be a minor nuisance to the government but not to have much authority himself.
Of course, the President has a certain moral authority which he can use to influence the governing of the country. But from what I've seen so far, the leading candidate Plevneliev will be just a figurehead, with his main function being the appointment of judges.

[GMantis]

I've made a map with my best prediction for how the local elections for mayor will go in the main Bulgarian cities:



The map shows predictions for the 27 centers of the provinces of Bulgaria (that's why Sofia province is white). Red is for BSP, purple for GERB, Blue for various right-wing candidates who are not supported by GERB, yellow is for MRF and orange is for IMRO. Grey is for races, where no reliable prediction can be made due to too little information or the unpredictability of a second election round. As in the general Atlas legend, * is for a defeat of an incumbent, while ^ is for the taking over of an open seat. The dots show which party currently holds the mayorship.

[GMantis]

How does local government work in Bulgaria?

Municipalities are meant as units for local self-government. In light of this, the municipalities have their own budget and are generally responsible for providing most local services like education, transportation, cleaning, etc.  They also can poses property and (most importantly) the assignments of a large part of government contracts.
Municipalities collect property taxes and taxes on garbage disposals. They also rely on income of contracts and many (if not most) receive government subsidy.
As for the distribution of power between the mayor and municipal council, it reflects the relationship between prime minister and parliament, though it's often a lot more contentious as they are elected separately.
Above the municipalities are the provinces which are not units for local government, but administrative units for the implementation of government policy. They, for example, organize elections and administer the police. They are headed by a governor who is appointed by the Prime Minister.

[GMantis]

Bulgarian electoral law prohibits the announcement of exit poll results before voting has ended, so the media announces instead spurious popular culture rankings which are rather obvious (though not always) stand-ins for the candidates. This one uses books:
http://www.focus-fen.net/?id=n262466

Translated:
Rosen Plevneliev: 40%
Ivaylo Kalfin: 29%
Meglena Kuneva: 13%
Volen Siderov: 4%
Rumen Hristov (Blue Coalition): 2%
Stefan Solakov (National Front for Salvation of Bulgaria, nationalist party): 2%
Mariya Kapon (United People's Party, personal party of Kasim Dal, former high ranked member of MRF and now their enemy): 2%
Krasimir Karakachanov (IMRO, nationalists): 1%
Aleksey Petrov (former head of the State Agency "National Security" and now bitter enemy of the PM): 1%
Svetoslav Vitkov (musician): 1%
Atanas Semov (Order, Law and Justice): 1%
 

[GMantis]

Another "book ranking":
http://www.focus-fen.net/?id=n262479

Seems that readers are getting tired of folktales and switching to fantasy.

[GMantis]

Who will the Turks vote for in the presidential election?

This time around, the MRF hasn't endorsed anyone in the presidential election, though they advised their supporters to vote against Plevneliev. Unofficially, there is supposed to be an effort to turn them out for Kalfin.
However, as I mentioned above, the MRF has recently split. Kasim Dal, a longtime confidant of Ahmed Dogan, the leader of the MRF, left after making some very strong accusations of misuse of power by Dogan and formed his own party. Few of the important personalities in the MRF followed him, but there are indications that the Turkish government seems to back Dal over Dogan, which means they could influence the hundreds of thousands Bulgarian Turks living in Turkey to support him in the election. Of course, they are more interested in the local elections, where they are running candidates in almost all Turkish areas, but they are at least running a candidate (Mariya Kapon) unlike Dogan.
And in addition to that, one of the organizations of Bulgarian Turks living in Turkey have nominated their own candidate, Sali Ibryam. So it gets quite complicated. My guess is that Turks will have a low turnout in the presidential election, with most of those in Bulgaria supporting Kalfin, fewer Kapon and even less Ibryam. In Turkey, it's quite possible that one of Kapon and Ibryam might overtake Dogan.

[GMantis]

My guess is that Turks will have a low turnout in the presidential election

Which would have effects in local elections too, no? Given that they're held together?

Yes they are, but nothing would prevent them from voting just in the local election. There is the complication that separate ballots are used for each election, so it would seem a bit strange if a voter took only the ballots for the local election, but stranger things have happened at those precincts.

[GMantis]

People obviously might just leave their presidential ballot blank. But I would suppose that people who come to the polls because they care about one of the elections will usually vote in both, even if they don't particularly care.

That's logical, but it does seem that most municipalities that have reported a local turnout have more people voting in local elections than in the presidential one. The difference is small though, only a few percent.

[GMantis]

Yet another "book ranking":
http://www.focus-fen.net/?id=n262496
Seems the readers will settle for folktales after all...

In other news, there is the rare sight (for Bulgaria) of people lining up to vote. This is mostly due to there being too many elections and the inept system that's in place to handle them. It could be made much easier by using one ballot, but then manufacturers of ballots and voting urns would suffer and no one would want that

[GMantis]

Above the municipalities are the provinces which are not units for local government, but administrative units for the implementation of government policy. They, for example, organize elections and administer the police. They are headed by a governor who is appointed by the Prime Minister.

Strange. Is this a legacy of the old regime, or a newer invention?

Why is it strange? And I suppose it has remained from the old regime, though now municipalities have much more power.

Oh, and roflmao regarding the poll leakings!

It's one of better parts of elections here

[GMantis]

Why is it strange?

The centrally appointed regional head in a democratic system. Presume it also means central government control of local policing?

Bulgaria is a unitary state, so it makes sense that the administrative divisions are the means for the government to implement its decisions on a regional level. I believe that this is the case for many other unitary states in Europe, though there are of course those were regional heads are elected.
As for the police, the interior ministry appoints the heads of the regional police. Of course, mayors do have the power to give orders to the local police.

[GMantis]

Incidentally, there were attempts to have the governors elected but the government of Bulgaria is not one which surrenders power easily.

In other news, due to high turnout and logistical problems, voting is extended to 8 PM local time (1 PM EDT). And the final "book ranking" seems to be like the last one: http://www.focus-fen.net/?id=n262505. There are however rumors that many voters refuse to answer exit polls, so surprises are certainly possible.

[GMantis]

I don't think there are many "western" countries left that are still that centralist.
Do the provinces at least have some kind of elected council?

No. As I said, the government here doesn't like to lose too much power. And surprisingly, even France has elected regional councils.

Bulgaria is a unitary state, so it makes sense that the administrative divisions are the means for the government to implement its decisions on a regional level.

Oh, sure, sure. That's not so strange. It's the business of having an appointed Governor that seems a little odd (I don't mean that in a hostile way or anything; British local government is about twenty times more fycked up) and vaguely reminiscent of French Prefects.

There is also the fact that proportionally to population, Bulgaria's provinces are rather big, perhaps comparable to the regions in England. As far as I understand it, their local authority leaders' boards don't really have too much power?

[GMantis]

First exit poll results:
Plevneliev 40%
Kalfin 30%
Kuneva 14%

[GMantis]

Also some official turnout reports:
http://results.cik.bg/tur1/aktivnost/index.html
Upper tab for presidential, lower for local elections.

Some exit polls about the local results. They show much better results for GERB than it was expected, but there is still the problem with too many voters refusing to answer the exit polls.

[GMantis]

The US ambassador has seen to fit to visit the election center. Has he ever heard of diplomatic protocol or is he just that insolent?

[GMantis]

Some parallel counting results have emerged and they mostly match the exit polls. Then again, it's still not certain whether they don't work for the same boss.

[GMantis]

I think that says 87.6% of polling stations counted?

Plevneliev 39.8, Kalfin 29.2, Kuneva 14.1, Silenov 3.7, all others below 2%.

Hilariously accurate exit poll.

Yes, that's it. Some big cities have still not finished counting and they might not be ready before Tuesday.
Yes, very accurate exit polls. Almost suspiciously so...
And I think that Bulgaria might be the only Balkan country without an English version of its election commission web page.

[GMantis]

Oh how I wish that Simeon hadn't gone and blew it.

Blew what? His slim chances of regaining his throne? Well, it's a bit difficult to win the confidence of a country where you have stolen public property with an estimated value of $200 million. And your wish is not shared by almost anyone here.

[GMantis]

The electoral commission has finally published the final results (if they're not canceled, but that's more a problem with local elections). They're not much different from what was expected:

Rosen Plevneliev: 40.11%
Ivaylo Kalfin: 28.96%
Meglena Kuneva: 14.00%
Volen Siderov: 3.64%
Others: 13.29%

Turnout was 51.83%, higher than last time.

[GMantis]

Here is map of the results of the Presidential election by municipality:



Red is for Kalfin, blue for Plevneliev, map scale is the same as the one of the Atlas.

[GMantis]

So Kalfin won most of the Turkish areas, basically. Why did he do so well in the Danube Valley in the northwest?

This is a very poor, mostly rural region, with an aging population - generally the kind of area where BSP does very well.