Nichlemn
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,920
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« on: March 22, 2018, 04:51:51 PM » |
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I'm less bearish on Bredesen than I was when he got in, but I still think he's a clear underdog. Still, I think there's a lot more uncertainty in this race than usual for a Senate race, because it's just a fundamentally tricky question as to how much to weight the polls vs apparent candidate quality. I would not be surprised at all if Bredesen lost by 10+, causing it to seem "obvious" in hindsight that partisan gravity would drag him back down to earth. I would also not be surprised if he won by a couple of points, and it turns out that all the "retread precedents" weren't as strong as they once appeared.
Predictit currently has him at a little under 40% to win. That seems too high to me, though probably not massively so.
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