Nate Silver: Would Republicans Be Better Off If The Democrat Won In Alabama?I don't buy this angle
at all. To be sure, Republicans wouldn't exactly be thrilled to have the PR of Roy Moore being elected. But I think the notion that it's going to be some big albatross around the neck of Republicans in different states nearly a year later? Nah. They'll distance themselves from him, probably make some token effort to expel him, then quietly drop the issue once the furore dies down.
I mean, Nate notes the obvious example of Trump's allegations being rarely discussed today at the end of the article. But even Trump is the President! He's a major figure for everyone. Is there any precedent for people voting differently because of scandals from politicians from other states? Nate cites the Mark Foley scandal, but that was unusual in being uncovered just weeks before the midterms. Did swing voters in OH care that Democrats didn't expel IL Sen. Roland Burris, appointed by corrupt then-Gov Blagojevich? Were swing voters in NH influenced by TN Rep's Scott DesJarlais' affair and hypocrisy?
I feel like this is a "beltway pundit's contrarian hot-take" that Nate would usually be keen to dismiss.
