The probability that the Democratic nominee wins all counties in New England (user search)
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  The probability that the Democratic nominee wins all counties in New England (search mode)
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Author Topic: The probability that the Democratic nominee wins all counties in New England  (Read 2527 times)
Nichlemn
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Posts: 1,920


« on: October 23, 2017, 12:13:34 AM »

Quite low.  It's basically equal to the probability of a double digit Dem PV win.

This. It's clearly not 30% nor 0.001%. Consider that Nate Silver give a Clinton a 6% chance of winning Texas on the eve of the Presidential election. It's a bit like that for Dems, but a bit harder because non-universal swings make it harder to guarantee a win in every county. On the other hand, with a lot of time left before the election, there's more room for outlier scenarios to occur than there was on the eve of the election.
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