Quite low. It's basically equal to the probability of a double digit Dem PV win.
This. It's clearly not 30% nor 0.001%. Consider that Nate Silver give a Clinton a
6% chance of winning Texas on the eve of the Presidential election. It's a bit like that for Dems, but a bit harder because non-universal swings make it harder to guarantee a win in every county. On the other hand, with a lot of time left before the election, there's more room for outlier scenarios to occur than there was on the eve of the election.