Did Clinton do as well as expected on ST? (user search)
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  Did Clinton do as well as expected on ST? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Did Clinton do as well as expected on ST?  (Read 4846 times)
Nichlemn
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« on: March 02, 2016, 04:22:45 PM »

It doesn't really matter. It's not good enough for Bernie to meet or slightly exceed expectations. He needs to fundamentally turn the race around. And now, with a sizeable number of delegates locked in, he has to do significantly enough to make up a lot of lost ground as well.     

The race is over so far as regular campaigns go. Bernie needs a black swan like an indictment or death to have any chance at being nominated.
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Nichlemn
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Posts: 1,920


« Reply #1 on: March 02, 2016, 04:46:32 PM »
« Edited: March 02, 2016, 04:50:50 PM by Nichlemn »

Georgia went for Clinton in 92, almost did so again in 96, and was only a 5 point loss to Obama in 08. Again, if Minnesota counts, so does Georgia.

lol@this Atlas logic. "WV went for Clinton in 1996 and Joe Manchin won there in 2010, so I think it's more of a swing state than FL because FL went for Bush in 1992 and Rubio won by a bigger margin than Manchin!" No one cares how a state voted in the 80s or 90s. Also, Perot took lots of white voters away from Bush in the South. Clinton would have lost GA in 1992 had it not been for Perot.

Wow... I was pointing out that Minnesota was a NOT a swing state, given that it hasn't voted GOP in decades, and Obama won it handily both times he ran. If Minnesota is a swing state, then so are similarly leaning GOP states, and Georgia fits that. But the larger point is, Minnesota is not a swing state.

MN has a CPVI of D+2, Georgia is R+6. It only has its winning streak because it was quite Democratic in the 80s (no doubt helped by Mondale being on the ticket multiple times). It definitely has a D lean, but it would quite probably vote Republican if they won the popular vote by more than a few points. In contrast, Obama couldn't win GA even with a 7 point national victory.
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