Nichlemn
Jr. Member
Posts: 1,920
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« on: December 01, 2014, 04:32:05 PM » |
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The thing about a gerrymander is that if your goal is maximising the probability you control the House, then there's not a lot of point in drawing a district that can survive wave years. In an environment where Democrats had a shot of winning the House majority, they would very likely have also won IL-10 in its current composition. The one caveat is the potential for incumbents to entrench themselves - for instance, maybe in a future cycle Democrats miss the House majority by 1 seat because Dold survived with the help of his incumbency advantage.
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