MA Special Election Watch Thread

[Nichlemn]

Mark my words: Brown won't win, unless Obama's approvals massively plummet in the upcoming months.

Why not? He remained popular even as he lost, the special election turnout will be more Republican friendly (perhaps even to the extent of having voted for him in 2012), the Senate majority isn't up for grabs and Warren was a strong candidate.

[Nichlemn]

Honestly, the legislature should just change the law again and save the state a whole lot of money on a statewide special election. The seat is up in 2014 anyway, there's no reason an appointment can't last until then.

It'd look awfully self-serving to change the law yet again to avoid an imminent possibility of a Republican Senator.

[Nichlemn]

If Brown stays out could Tisei be a potential contender for the Rupublicans?

Maybe, but he'd lose. He couldn't even beat Tierney, who was hugely damaged (and also in a less Democratic seat than the state). Also, Tisei, being gay, can't assemble the coalition of voters Brown did.

What about the uncertainty/turnout issues of special elections?