Its pretty absurd to think that New Mexico, with 45%+ of its voters registering as Democrats AND Obama getting 57% of the vote as anything other than a Democratic state. Perhaps Hispanic-friendly Republicans, like W. can win that state if they are already going to win the election (NM, with maybe the exception of Iowa, was W's closest state...and therefore W would have gotten 274-281 votes before he got NM), but voting for a Republican once in 20 years doesn't make a place a swing state if in the past election one party was killed there. Then again, Colorado Democrats are 2-3 on the Presidential level in the past 20 years and Colorado is considered a Democratic state, albeit one that can be pursuaded to vote for a skilled Republican.
No Republican has won Wisconsin in more than 20 years though. Maybe as the Democrats in that state move to Colorado or Florida or Texas, those states will become more Democratic and the left behind Republicans will make Wisconsin more Republican, but there really isn't any sign of that besides the fact that a bunch of hicks capitalized on disgruntled voters due to the depression.
We're talking just a handful of elections here. With such a small sample size, they don't have a huge amount of predictive power.
