Could 2012 have the House and Senate flip both ways?

[Nichlemn]

I think people in this thread are underestimating the degree to which Senate races are independent of Presidential ones. They're correlated, sure, but not excessively. Remember the coattails in 1972 and 1984? Thought not.

Speaking of whether this has ever happened before, have either chamber of congress and/or the Presidency flipped in opposite directions? The closest is in 2000, where the Democrats gained the Senate for the lame-duck period only (and then when Jeffords defected, but that doesn't really count).

[Nichlemn]

I think people in this thread are underestimating the degree to which Senate races are independent of Presidential ones. They're correlated, sure, but not excessively. Remember the coattails in 1972 and 1984? Thought not.

Those were in the days where ticket splitting was far more prominent. 

Ok, how about 1996? And is there really much of a decline in ticket-splitting outside the South? Looking at say, the 2008 Senate races, even when a state's Senate vote was for the same party as the President there was often a gap of over 5 points. And ticket splitters don't unanimously break one way - even when Biden was simultaneously running for President and Senator, a decent number of voters split their tickets both ways.

[Nichlemn]

I think people in this thread are underestimating the degree to which Senate races are independent of Presidential ones. They're correlated, sure, but not excessively. Remember the coattails in 1972 and 1984? Thought not.

Those were in the days where ticket splitting was far more prominent. 

Ok, how about 1996? And is there really much of a decline in ticket-splitting outside the South? Looking at say, the 2008 Senate races, even when a state's Senate vote was for the same party as the President there was often a gap of over 5 points. And ticket splitters don't unanimously break one way - even when Biden was simultaneously running for President and Senator, a decent number of voters split their tickets both ways.

The two Republican pickups in 1996 were open seats in states where Clinton did quite badly(Nebraska and Alabama).  In 2012, the only state where those factors will likely be in play is Nebraska. 

Actually, there was a third Republican pickup (in Arkansas, which Clinton won) and a Democratic pickup (in South Dakota, which Gore won). Republicans also won open seats in states Clinton won comfortably (Maine and Oregon).