Well, think of it this way. When was the last time someone ran for president just four years into his first Senate term, with no prior experience with statewide or national office? (Not counting joke 3rd tier candidates.) I can't think of any examples for decades going back before Obama. Even Edwards was running at the end of his six year term. If something hasn't happened for decades, people tend to not expect it to happen again soon.
Also note that Obama himself ruled out a run:
link
and was making no moves for towards a campaign until October 2006. Predicting that he would run would've been at least as much of a longshot as predicting that Bobby Jindal will run in 2012. Jindal of course was getting some buzz last year, but none now, as he's ruled it out as much as Obama did in 2004/5, and he's making no moves towards building a campaign.
I hope to god Jindal doesn't run. He's the GOP equivalent of Obama - young, ethnic, speaks well (bar the one poorly scripted performance). IE,by playing those cards and not on a proven, substantial record makes him just as fake and naive as Obama.
