Name the next three U.S. Presidents (user search)
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  Name the next three U.S. Presidents (search mode)
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Author Topic: Name the next three U.S. Presidents  (Read 173642 times)
Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,212
United States


« on: June 22, 2015, 06:07:24 PM »
« edited: June 22, 2015, 06:09:53 PM by Yelnoc »

45. Jeb Bush (2017-2021) [1]
46. Kamala Harris (2021-2029) [2]
47. Joaquin Castro (2029-2033) [3]

[1] Or some other Republican. Hillary is going to flop. Whoever wins in 2016 will have to deal with the next recession, and will be clobbered running for reelection in 2020.

[2] Senator Harris becomes the first female President and running mate Joaquin Castro becomes the first latino Vice President.

[3] Though his brother Julian's career stalled after joining Obama's cabinet, Joaquin timed his rise perfectly to become Harris's running mate and eventual successor.

Just for fun, the elections:

2016: Hillary Clinton v. Jeb Bush
2020: Jeb Bush v. Kamala Harris
2024: Kamala Harris v. John Kasich [4]
2028: Joaquin Castro v. Tom Cotton

[4] Assumes Kasich is Bush's main opposition in 2016 and hangs around as Heir Apparent like McCain, maybe getting elected to the senate to pass the time in between.
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Yelnoc
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 7,212
United States


« Reply #1 on: August 12, 2015, 08:02:02 PM »

2017-2025 Scott Walker
2025-2029 Carly Fiorina

2029-2033 Kamala Harris

In a realignment period trending against their party, which took effect with Barack Obama's first-term election from 2008,  the Republicans aren't going to string together three consecutive presidential victories.

I disagree with the premise.

You're allowed to feel that you "disagree." But, go back to the previous realignments of 1800–1824 (Democratic–Republican), 1828–1856 (Democratic), 1860–1892 (Republican), 1896–1928 (Republican), 1932–1964 (Democratic), and 1968–2004 (Republican) and cite an example of the out party having won three consecutive election cycles.

Texas sharpshooter fallacy. Of course if you go back retroactively, periods in which the roulette wheel chooses the red several times in a row are not going to have three blacks in a row. That has no statistical bearing on the future though. Unless you can provide some inherent reason why there should be merit to such 40 (36? 28?) year cyclic behavior, I shall continue to regard it as as valid as astrology.

Realignments are not “fallacies.”

I will let you do your own research—assuming you’re capable—which should be a help to you.




Damn dude, calm the f[inks] down, no need to be so rude.
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