What will be the closest state

[Yelnoc]

North Carolina.  The whole marriage amendment passed because the only people who turned out to vote were motivated by political pastors on the Sunday before the vote.  In the general election, the other half of the electorate will be out to vote.  Current polling shows the state sits on a razor thin margin, and I don't see that changing.  Obama's convention bump will obviously overly manifest itself in North Carolina, and on election day I doubt Romney will have rallied enough to overturn the Democratic advantage.  In other words, Obama will hold most of his 2008 states (sans Indiana and maybe even not Florida).