If Hillary runs, she has the nomination in the bag.
Jesus H. Christ. To say with four years to go that someone has the nomination already in a bag...
I had to double check and make sure that post wasn't from 2004.
We don't have any Obamas this time. Hillary would have been a shoo-in against Edwards or any other, but Obama 2004 speech and the "hope" and "change" he promissed was something not even Hillary could beat. Who do you think could beat Hillary this time? Remember that her approvals are higher now than they were in 2007-208, too.
Tell me who in November 2008 actually expected Obama to be the next nominee before he even took his Senate seat? Sure, there was a lot of buzz "he might be President one day", "he'd make a great VP choice in 2008" but come on...
The GOP have a pattern of nominating the expected candidates. The Democrats not really. For example, everyone were talking how unstoppable Gary Hart is after Mondale's defeat and we all know how he ended up.
I still think that Clinton is the favourite, as she will be supported by Bill and Obama (yes, Bill campaigned for him in exchange of something). But even if she doesn't get Obama's support, many, many high-profile dems, mega-donors and blacks+latinos+the rust belt+women will give her the nomination, don't you think?
And keep in mind that Obama is unique, who, in 2016, can challenge Clinton like Obama did in 2008? Plus she has more support now than she had 4 years ago, she's beloved not only by democrats, but also by independents and some republicans.
If Clinton wants to be our nominee, barring a scandal, she will. That's what I believe now, and will continue to believe until I see an Obama running.
