I wanted to make this topic before but I was very busy campaigning for PSOE here in Sanse (Madrid): PSOE should beat current PP major. But I really don't know... let's wait. This Sunday we'll know the results =S
PP is supposed to win handily overall.... But stranger things have happened in Spaniard politics...
People in 13 of our 17 Autonomic Comunities will decide their next presidents, and Ceuta and Melilla too. Also, we will decide our next major in every city or village in Spain.
Asturias: PSOE's candidate is leading in polls, because conservatives are splitted between PP's candidate and Francisco Alvarez Cascos, former VP with Aznar, who has created his own party: FAC. I'd call it a
toss-up/tilts conservative majority (PP+FAC). the election will be close. we don't know if PSOE+ IU or PP + FAC will get a majority.
Cantabria: PP is leading, as always, in Cantabria. However, PRC's candidate and current president Miguel Angel Revilla is the most popular politician of Spain. I think PRC+PSOE will get a majority, as usual. But PP is very strong this year.
Leans PRC/PSOE majorityNavarra: UPN, formerly PP's navarran party, is leading in polls, like in 207. PSOE and Na-Bai are fighting for the 2nd position. PP will likely finish 4th. It's possible a UPN-PP government could happen, but unlikely. Also, a Na-Bai-PSOE government isn't impossible... But the most likely outcome is a UPN-PSOE alliance, like in 2007. So,
LIKELY UPN coalitionLa Rioja: the same history of always... PP and PSOE remain close but then PP wins an absolute majority.
LIKELY PPAragon: two things are clear here. PSOE won't be as strong as it's always been here and the next president will have to form a big coalition to be able to govern. I'd say this election is a TOSS-UP. PP could win the election and form a coalition with PAR or PSOE could win or loose but govern with CHA or IU, or even with PAR, like now.
Valencia: Valencia's PP is the most corrupt party in Europe, probably. But Valencianos are very conservative...
SAFE PPMurcia: it should be called southern Valencia.
SAFE PPBaleares: the question is: will PP get a majority??? More probably than not. But if not, PSOE's candidate and current president, Antich, will be probably the next President, again.
LEANS PPMadrid: I live here... it would be wonderful if Tomas Gomez won with the support of IU... but
SAFE PPCastilla y Leon:
SAFE PP. no more, no less... however, PSOE's candidate, Oscar Lopez, should be elected President in 2015 or 2019...
Extremadura: TOSS-UP between PP and PSOE. but IU is a factor here, and commies will supoort current pres. Fernandez-Vara. However, PP isn't that far from a supermajority... so,
LEANS PSOE-IU coalitionCeuta:
SAFE PP no matter what
Melilla: see Ceuta
Canarias: who will get more representatives? This election is a 3-way toss-up. PP, PSOE and CC are tied. But CC will probably elect a president again, because PP won't support a PSOE president and viceversa. so, the least bad option for the 2 parties is CC...
TOSS UP but really LEANS CC PRESIDENCYAnd here we have the big battle...
CASTILLA-LA MANCHA: PP always wins this community in General elections. However, PSOE always wins regional elections. Current president Jose Maria Barreda is beloved by manchegos... but PP's candidate is PP's general secretarie Maria Dolores de Cospedal and people there really hate Zapatero. so the question is... will they vote thinking about Castilla-La Mancha (Barreda wins), or will they vote thinking about national PSOE, Zapatero, and Spain in general (Cospedal wins)
![Huh](https://talkelections.org/FORUM/Smileys/classic/huh.gif)
PURE TOSS-UP.
My heart says Barreda wins. My brain says Cospedal...