Spanish General Election 2011

[Niemeyerite]

Zapatero didn't want to move the election to november. but Rubalcaba did, because he thinks PSOE can make a comeback. I think we should have elections in March, not November. but here are the reasons:

-50% of the people wanted elections before March, 2012. Of that 50%, many are PSOE voters.

-Unemployement is the biggest problem here in Spain. We loose jobs in October, November, December, January, February and March, while we gain jobs in the spring and summer. If we have elections in Nomvember, the unemployement rate will be lower than in March. That'll surely help Rubalcaba.

- ETA's really weak right now. Rubalcaba's the most popular and succesful Minister of the Interior. And people are talking that ETA will dissolve by september-october.

- Francisco Camps, president of Valencia, reisgned last month (you know, corruption, as usual). Rubalcaba thinks he can use that in the campaign. But March may be too late to use the "Caso Gurtel" in the campaign.

-Rubalcaba has the momentum right now. It could be finished by March (that's what he thinks, because I disagree).

- There's a reason elections will be held in November, 20, known in Spain as 20-N, the day Franco died. That'll help PSOE, I think.

The campaign hasn't started, and Rajoy is "only" 7 points ahead of Rubalcaba. Remember that 4 months ago, his lead was of 15 points. And rmemeber that Rajoy is an awful campaigner, too, while Rubalcaba is charismatic and moderate. PSOE's clearly trying to loose by a small margin, they didn't think they could win before this poll. But now there's optimism in the party.

I think we could still win this election with a good campaign. We have the right candidate. They have the wrong canidate. And look at this questions CIS poll asked:

we'll read some words. Tell me which candidate represents them better:

Efficiency:                                Rubalcaba 38.9%       Rajoy 28.3%
Dialogue:                                 Rubalcaba 45.3%       Rajoy 25.1%
Negotiation skills:                    Rubalcaba 42.3%       Rajoy 25.5%
Honestity:                                Rubalcaba 31.6%       Rajoy 22.1%
Understands Spain problems: Rubalcaba 34.7%       Rajoy 27.6%
Forward-looking approach:     Rubalcaba 34%          Rajoy 29.7%

[Niemeyerite]

People, I'm not saying Rubalcaba will win. I'm saying he CAN win with a good campaign. Rajoy's campaign is supposed to be awful, as usual. But I know there are many people who voted PSOE in 2004 and 2008 and won't vote anytime soon. That's a huge handicap if we want to win... on the other hand, we have the young people, the 15-M protesters, and some communist who could vote PSOE because they know Rubalcaba is an "old-guard" (vieja guardia) socialist, and a honest person. He's to the left of Zapatero, but he needs to demonstrate that. there are many socialist voters who are dissatisfied with PSOE because they think the party has become too capitalist.

PP begins with 10 million votes. In a good day, Rajoy could get as much as 11.5 or 12 million votes.
PSOE begins with 7.5 milion votes, I think.
IU has right now 1.5 million votes, more or less.
Nationalists from the left or from the right should be given 2 million votes, I guess.
UPyD, 600.000 votes.
Undecideds are 3 million people.

Rubalcaba has to do the same Zapatero did in 2008: pick 1/3 of IU voters, pick 50% of the Nationalist vote and 60-70% of the undecideds. PP's vote is stabilished. It won't grow a lot, but it won't fall, either. At the ends, 1 in 20 PP voters will vote Rubalcaba (that's what analysts are saying).
UPyD has to "explode". Their leader, a former socialist, Rosa Diez, is supposed to be hurting the two big parties. But I'm sure her electorate prefers Rubalcaba overr Rajoy. And UPyD's voters DON'T stay at home.
so, 7 millions + 500.000 IU voters + 800.000 nationalist votes + 200.000 UPyD's + 2 millions undecideds = 10.5 Million votes. And I guess PP will finish with 11 or 11.5 Million votes. Rubalcaba may not win, but the election will be close =) Rajoy won't have a majority in the Parliament, at least.

What does Rubalcaba need to do?? Turn left (he's doing exactly that) and show to the people he's turning to the left, too. Then, campaign HARD, really HARD, in Euskadi, Catalunya, Andalucia and Valencia. A majority of the undecided and nationalist vote comes from there.
He should have some respected politicians as head of the list in those communities:
Carme Chacon for Catalunya,
Rosa Aguilar (former major of Cordoba, former IU member) and Felipe Gonzalez for Andalucia (believe me, RbCb's trying to get him involved in the campaign),
José Bono and Jose Maria Barreda in Castilla-La Mancha,
Maria Teresa Fdez. de la Vega in Valencia,
José Blanco in Galicia,
Guillermo Fernandez Vara (and if it's possible, Rodriguez Ibarra) in Extremadura,
Juan Fernando Lopez Aguilar in Canarias (really important if he wants to pick nationalists there),
Vicente Alvarez-Areces in Asturias (too old, I don't think he'll want to campaign, but, if he does, Asturias will vote PSOE)
...

PSOE's bench is formidable. Rubalcaba has to get them involved. And if Javier Solana gets involved in the campaign, I think Rajoy will have some headaches ¨

[Niemeyerite]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

CiU and PNV won't hurt PP. There aren't many potentially PP voters in Catalunya or the Basque country. In catalunya, PP share will increase, for sure, but Rajoy will have to keep his voters in Valencia, Galicia and Madrid, so he won't spend much time in Catalunya (Rubalcaba will).
Remember one thing: while PP margin over PSOE was of 10 points in the las local elections, PP only had 38% of the vote (only 1% more than in 2007). So, really, PP hasn't got more room to improve their numbers. And in the campaign, Rajoy knows he'll loose some points, too. What he's trying right now (and I'm seeing it on TV) is to stay quiet, not say anything and keep things going on. he's "sleeping", because he's a loser-machine, and everything he says, makes him loose voters. that won't work forever, I hope.

[Niemeyerite]

I don't see how the PSOE can win. Unemployment is at a horrible level in Spain right now. 20% for a developed nation is not something that will go unnoticed by the electorate. The economy has also been somewhat stagnant recently, and I don't see the UPyD or another smaller party picking up enough disgruntled PSOE support to prevent the PP from a victory, even if Rajoy isn't a popular figure.

Even nationalists/autonomists?

The PNV and CIU could hurt the PP in the Basque Country and Catalonia, but the PP isn't that popular in those areas to begin with. I will say that the PP isn't as bad off in those areas as the Tories are in Scotland for example, but nationalist parties haven't really allowed them to developed a support base in those areas as well as the PSOE.

Please, please, please try to understand Spanish peripheric nationalism and the question of nationalisms and regionalisms in Spain before talking out of your ass.

What was incorrect about that statement that made you feel it was appropriate to accuse me of talking out of my ass?

I don't know, maybe thinking that the PP and the nationalists in Catalonia and Euskadi share voters or that the nationalists hurt the PP. If you think that the only reason the PP is weak there is because the nationalists take their vote, then you should read more about Spanish peripheric nationalism. It's, afaik, pretty basic stuff central to Spanish politics.

I didn't say that, I said the nationalist parties take support away from the PP, which is true since the CIU and PNV are center right, but support autonomy and nationalism unlike the PP. I never said that all of their support comes from people who would vote for the PP. The PP is weak there because they have historically fought against greater autonomy and cultural recognition in the regions, whereas the nationalist parties and PSOE have.

Nationalist don't take support away from the PP. Nationalists hurt PSOE, and viceversa. A conservative CiU or PNV nationalist can vote PSOE to keep PP out of the Presidency (see 2008).
There's a poll from EL PAIS today which says it's PP 44% PSOE 31%. The good thing is that rubalcaba, again, is seen as a better candidate. And that only 52% of socialist are voting Rubalcaba because:
1) They don't care about the election because they think PP will win anyways.
2) Zapatero has upseted them with his "capitalist" economic policies.

They say, however, that Rubalcaba can make a comeback if he continues to move to the left and people start to think he has an option.

[Niemeyerite]

PSOE's nevr lost an election in Andalucia. After more than 20 years, "andaluces" think this is the time to change the Governament. There are a lot of people who will vote PP in the Regional elections but will vote Rubalcaba in November (like Castilla la-Mancha usually votes PSOE in Regionals and PP in Generals, more or less like Arkansas in the USA: democrat and republican in different levels).

If I were you I'd only believe ELPAIS polls, Metroscopia polls and the CIS.
El Mundo, La Gaceta and ABC polls are obviously PP friendly. La Razón is clearly "Marianista" but their polls tend to be OK the month before the election.
Publico polls are biased, too. However, they're PSOE and IU friendly.

We will loose, but not bymore than 7 points, I think. Don't forget, people, that Rajoy is synonim of Disaster.

[Niemeyerite]

Can someone explain without heavy doses of bias why Rajoy is so disliked?

He lost 2 elections. the moderate wing of the PP (leaded by Gallardon) thinks he favors the ultra-conservative wing (and that's true). The extremist wing leaded by Mayor Oreja and Aguirre) thinks Rajoy is a bad candidate for the party, because he has no personality and has already lost 2 times.

The ERC vote change is interesting. I'm not terribly familiar with conditions in Catalonia; can someone explain?

Yes. First, Solidaritat Independentista, a copy of ERC, won 4 seats in the past elections. and the "tripartito" of PSC-IU-ERC was seen as uneffective, and the more nationalist people in ERC prefer to vote CiU or SI, to punish ERC.

_____________________

And remember what I said, ABC, ELMUNDO or LAGACETA surveys aren't reliable. and that +12.6
advantage for Rajoy comes from an ABC poll.

Here we have an IPSOS poll. I don't think it's reliable, either, but PP is up by 8.2%:

[Niemeyerite]

IMHO, tha poll showing CiU losing support isn't reliable. I think CiU will have more votes than in 2008. now, they have 10 seats, and I expect them to gain 2 or 3 =/
ERC has a new leader now, more radical, more "nationalist", who plans to oust Joan Ridao, ERC's leader in the Parliament, and put in his place a more radical person. I think that could help them. If they were supposed to lose 2 seats, I think they could loose only 1 or even stay at 3.

[Niemeyerite]

I think it's extremely unlikely CiU will loose support. 2008 was really a bad year for them, because  half of their voters decided to help Zapatero. And they may be in the power in Catalunya now, and Artur Mas is not exactly "popular", but he will keep some of those 2008 ZP voters at home. Also, Duran i Lleida is the most popular political figure in Spain after Rubalcaba and Chacon.
I wouldn't be too surprised if CiU managed to win 15 seats. But one thing is clear: PSOE will win, again, in Catalunya this year.

Josep Lluis Carod-Rovira didn't retire. He was almost ousted by Joan Puigcercós, the former president of ERC. Carod wanted to be in the campaign of 2009, but Puigcercos thought he could hurt the party. He was wrong, of course.

And talking about Catalunya, here we have an unreliable intern poll from CiU for the Presidential election in Catalunya. PSOE carries 32.1% of the vote while CiU wins 29.7%. PP is stronger than expected, but remember, this is an intern poll:

[Niemeyerite]

Any significant news or polling recently? Things seem to have gotten awfully quiet.

Nothing afaik. It's dead season as the campaign hasn't started and the writs haven't officially been dropped yet. Most of what has made news yet are little snippets like abolishing provincial governments, proposed by Rubalcaba who then backtracked. Only significant news imo is that Aralar has signed a deal with Bildu for a common slate for the general elections which the PNV has refused. Aralar has nothing much to loose given that Bildu has stolen most of its votes.

Yes, PNV refused. but they could still go in the same lists for the Senate... that's unlikely, however.
Other news is that PSOE and PP are trying to ge the suport of PNV to oust Bildu's Martin Garitano as General Deputy of Guipuzkoa.

And... nothing more. Rubalcaba is campaign¡ng hard and we still don't know where Mariano Rajoy is.

[Niemeyerite]

And... nothing more. Rubalcaba is campaign¡ng hard and we still don't know where Mariano Rajoy is.

I know the likelihood is tiny, but... Could Rubalcaba pull a Truman ?

Definitely, he's doing all he can do to win this. It will be really difficult, but I don't think it's impossible.
In Portugal, the PS was trailing by +20, and 2 weeks before the election, they were leading the PSD by 1! However, the PSD won by 10 at the end... It wasn't the worst result. I hope Rubalcaba will make this election really close.

Spanish socialists tend to be like Harry Truman: nobody expected Gonzalez to win in 93, and Zapatero in 2004. And they won, comfortably.

[Niemeyerite]

Yes, Spanish polls are the worst in the World =/

I can't understand why the hell they don't poll Amaiur!! I remember when pollsters said Alvarez Casvcos was a distant 3rd in May.. LoL

Here's what I think:


-1st Uxue will be reelected, she's a good fit for Navarra and people like her.
-2nd Rubalcaba is a damn good campaigner. He'll make the elction closer... I don't think he will win, but PP will not have an absolute majority if he continues fighting.
-3rd Equo is being polled, and I think they'll get 1 seat from Madrid, 1 from Barcelona and 1 from Valencia.
4th Revilla deserves his seat in Cantabria. And he will win it.
5th Alvarez-Cascos may finish 2nd, after PSOE, in Asturias... Nobody knows, but he will likely get his seat in Asturias and 1 in Madrid is also likely... I know a lot of people here who are going to vote for him.. I think even Aguirre will do that xD
6th I think PSOE should break up with UPN in Navarra and govern with Na-Bai, IU and Bildu after the coalition PP-UPN, which makes me sick.
7th Hopefully, IU and CHA will go together in the lists... and if they form a coalition, I think it's likely they will be able to elect 1 congressperson.
8th UPyD will have worst results than expected
Here's my prediction, more or less:

PP - 165 to 175 seats
PSOE - 130 to 140 seats
IU - 5 to 8 seats
Equo/Compromis/ICV - 3 to 5 seats
UPyD - 2 to 3 seats (the problem is that I don't know where)
CiU - 11 to 13 seats
PNV - 5 to 6 seats
Amaiur - 3 to 6 seats
FAC - 1 to 3 seats
ERC - 2 seats
PRC - 1 seat
CC - 2 to 3 seats
PxC - 0 seats /it may sound weird, but I wouldn't mind if they won 1 seat, because PP deserve to have opposition from the right)
PR/PCAS/PA and other parties - 0 seats

[Niemeyerite]

Hash, Toni Cantó is a good candidate for UPyD in Valencia... I think they may get 2 seats in Madrid and maybe 1 in Valencia... I hate Cantó, but people like him, and I don't know why. Maybe it is because his daughter, 18, died last year.

And, remember, in May, PSOE got 28% of the vote and PP 38%. what does that mean? PSOE had a horrible result, but PP didn't have a good result, they should have reacher 40%. I don't think Rajoy will get an absolute majority.

There will be at least 2 debates. I hope Rubalcaba makes Rajoy cry there.

[Niemeyerite]

There are lots of Republicans here... I am a republican, too. My father is, my mother, my teachers, my neighbors... I supoose about 60% of the people here are republican... what's the problem??

The left (republicans) love the King. I like Juan Carlos, too. we think he's a leftie guy, and a republican, too. we have a republican King, imagine!!! The right used to like him, but now they hate him, I see it when I talk to conservative people, and when I watch conservative channels xD


So, I think we will ask for Republic when the King dies. Communists and "Indignados" are already fighting for the Republic, but Socialists like me prefer to let the King die after a good life.
If Spain had to vote in "King elections" Juan Carlos would win in a landslide... so, what's the problem with him?? He's not expensive like the Queen of England, he doesn't like big Castles and Palaces.

[Niemeyerite]

There are lots of Republicans here... I am a republican, too. My father is, my mother, my teachers, my neighbors... I supoose about 60% of the people here are republican... what's the problem??

The left (republicans) love the King. I like Juan Carlos, too. we think he's a leftie guy, and a republican, too. we have a republican King, imagine!!! The right used to like him, but now they hate him, I see it when I talk to conservative people, and when I watch conservative channels xD


So, I think we will ask for Republic when the King dies. Communists and "Indignados" are already fighting for the Republic, but Socialists like me prefer to let the King die after a good life.
If Spain had to vote in "King elections" Juan Carlos would win in a landslide... so, what's the problem with him?? He's not expensive like the Queen of England, he doesn't like big Castles and Palaces.

I like him too, but just thought it was a little odd how much money the Prime Minister spends on maintaining all these Royal properties that the Royal Family doesn't want to live in. I guess Republicanism is more popular there then I thought. It just seems strange that there has not been successful efforts to put the question of a Republic on the ballot through a referendum like some countries have done. The King's personal popularity I guess is probably the reason like you said.

Yes, that's it. When the King dies, I think the Left will cry more than the Right haha... However, when the King dies, people will go to the streets to ask for a Republic. Old people from the left always talk to us about the 2nd Republic, and a majority of the youngs want a Republic here (specially grandchildren of that people who fought for the Republic in the Civil War).

[Niemeyerite]

I prefer Rajoy to Aguirre because I hate Aguirre. but Rajoy will not be good for Spain

[Niemeyerite]

There are lots of Republicans here... I am a republican, too. My father is, my mother, my teachers, my neighbors... I supoose about 60% of the people here are republican... what's the problem??

The left (republicans) love the King. I like Juan Carlos, too. we think he's a leftie guy, and a republican, too. we have a republican King, imagine!!! The right used to like him, but now they hate him, I see it when I talk to conservative people, and when I watch conservative channels xD


So, I think we will ask for Republic when the King dies. Communists and "Indignados" are already fighting for the Republic, but Socialists like me prefer to let the King die after a good life.
If Spain had to vote in "King elections" Juan Carlos would win in a landslide... so, what's the problem with him?? He's not expensive like the Queen of England, he doesn't like big Castles and Palaces.

I don't think that Felipe is so disliked, no? He could be a decent king in the future

I like Felipe, there are a lot of people who like him, too. but we don't want him to be the King, I think. let him be happy and rich, but in the Republic of Spain.

I don't think Gallardon would be a democrat. he's a moderate when he talks, but when he acts he's only a bit less conservative than Aguirre

[Niemeyerite]

I don't think Gallardon would be a democrat. he's a moderate when he talks, but when he acts he's only a bit less conservative than Aguirre

We could say the same of a lot of democrats.

That's true.. Manchin, Zell Miller, Bayh, etc. But they should be GOPers, too

[Niemeyerite]

I don't trust ELMUNDO and LARAZON. don't know about La Vanguardia... they are pro-CiU and those numbers don't make much sense... upyd and iu at 4 congressperson is unlikely. Let's watch next CIS, ELPAIS and Antena3 polls of the next weekend.
Rubalcaba is doing all he can to make the election closer... and he will manage to narrow it a bit, but those numbers make me sick, he isn't improving.

The other day Aristegui (PP) said "PSOE will likely win the campaign, but we'll surely win the election". It is sad, but it is probably true.

[Niemeyerite]

Yeah, Rubalcaba will loose, but I still think he will loose by 5-7%, and not by 15-17%. PP cuts in education is going to hurt Rajoy.

[Niemeyerite]

Bloodbath.
Anyway,maybe it's the fact that I am in Catalunya and not "proper" Spain  (doing the Erasmus in Barcelona),but there is not much campaigning,just a few billboards.

In Catalunya, PSC will win, and probably in Euskadi, Jaen and Huelva we win, too... nowhere else =/

[Niemeyerite]

In deputies..., it's more or less like this:

PP 188-194
PSOE 115-122
IU (with ICV) 7-12
UPyD 2-4
CiU 12-14
ERC 2-3
PNV 4-5
Amaiur 4-6
Geroa Bai 0-1
FAC 1-2
PRC 0-1
Equo/Compromis 1-3 (0-1 Equo 1-2 Compromis)
BNG 2-3
CC 2-3

I expect PSOE to have more than 125 seats, and PP to have less than 185, because you know lots of IU/CiU/PNV votes will finally go for Rubalcaba as people don't want to have a PP absolute majority...
FAC failed to gain traction here in Madrid, it seems that the far-right is going to vote PP no matter what.

[Niemeyerite]

Doesn't Spain have some form of proportional representation? How is it that the IU can get so few seats even with over 10% of the vote?

Yes, but PR in provinces, which means that the real threshold in a lot of provinces with few seats is pretty high and in practice favours a polarized two-party system. The only places where the threshold is reasonable enough for third parties like IU to win seats are those with 10-12 or more seats, of which there are pretty few such constituencies.

(All things you guys would know if you read my blog!)

Yes, so IU only has possibilities in...

Madrid: they will surely win 2 and 3 or 4 could be possible, too.
Barcelona: ICV may take 2 seats, 3 with a bit of luck.
Zaragoza: IU should not be a factor here, but the coalition IU-CHA may win 1 seat here
Teruel: I've been told that IU has real possibilities here, and they say they're going to fight hard to get their seat. IMHO, it's nearly impossible.
Valencia: 1 seat (almost sure) and with a bit of luck, 2.
Alicante: they are campaigning hard, but they may not win their seat here...
Murcia: they have a good candidate, so it's possible they could get 1 seat. Not likely, but not impossible.
Sevilla: IU's pretty sure they will have a seat here, and they want their 2nd seat (but I think it's impossible, let's see).
Malaga: here, they are fighting to get 1 seat. I think there's a 50% probability they will get it.
Granada: IU says they can win 1 seat here. I doubt it.
Cordoba: same as Granada.
Cadiz: same as Granada and Cordoba
Asturias: they might win 1 seat here, but only because Gaspar Llamazares is their candidate.

So, IU could win 20 seats in a great night for them Cayo Lara, IU's leader, says they're going to get 21 seats.
Polls predict they will get 2 in Madrid and Barcelona, and 1 in Valencia, Sevilla, Zaragoza and Asturias with possibilities in Alicante, Murcia and Malaga (1) and one more in Valencia, Madrid and Barcelona.

I predict IU will get 6 seats (2 in Madrid, 1 in Barcelona, 1 in Valencia, 1 in Zaragoza and 1 in Sevilla) because 1/3 of IU voters will finally vote PSOE.

Let's see what happens.

[Niemeyerite]

New poll by the University of Murcia:

47.7% PP
28.7% PSOE
  7.6% IU
  4.2% UPyD
  3.4% CIU

http://www.um.es/cpaum/pdf/Preelectoral_11112011.pdf

PSOE could actually get below 30%? I know they've screwed up horribly, but it's hard to imagine they've fallen so low from their Felipe Gonzalez days.

I doubt it. PSOE is polling above 30% right now, and "technocrats" here say PSOE is trailing by 9 points (so, experts say polls are biased because people is really angry and say they're not going to vote PSOE... and finally they WILL vote PSOE).

Felipe Gonzalez has said today he was trailing by 9 points in 1996, too, and lost by only 1 point. So, for him it's not impossible to win this. I'm not that optimistic, but I hope we get better results than expected.

[Niemeyerite]

New poll by the University of Murcia:

47.7% PP
28.7% PSOE
  7.6% IU
  4.2% UPyD
  3.4% CIU

http://www.um.es/cpaum/pdf/Preelectoral_11112011.pdf

PSOE could actually get below 30%? I know they've screwed up horribly, but it's hard to imagine they've fallen so low from their Felipe Gonzalez days.

I doubt it. PSOE is polling above 30% right now, and "technocrats" here say PSOE is trailing by 9 points (so, experts say polls are biased because people is really angry and say they're not going to vote PSOE... and finally they WILL vote PSOE).

Felipe Gonzalez has said today he was trailing by 9 points in 1996, too, and lost by only 1 point. So, for him it's not impossible to win this. I'm not that optimistic, but I hope we get better results than expected.

Exactly - Gonzalez seemed to trail by 9, but lost only by 1. Rubalcaba seems to trail by 19, and will lose by only 9.
If those experts are right, and a lot of middling-soft PSOE support comes back.

trails by 19 in ELMUNDO polls... which are really biased.
I'd say he trails by 13, and people don't really think he's trailing by more than 10. This is Spain, we have bad pollsters, and 90% of them work for a political party, or support one candidate.

[Niemeyerite]

Tomorrow I'll make an analysis about each party possibilities in each Province.