Strategic Vision Polls from Ohio, Iowa, Penn, "Cheesehead Land", Jersey

[Giant Saguaro]

Kerry's up more than that in NJ and I'd say he's up about 2-3 in PA. Other than those, looks pretty good.

[Giant Saguaro]

The thing about Ohio, which I think is fairly blue collar state, is social issues probably hurt Kerry more than anything. To a lot of people, and this remains pretty true throughout history (read an argument in a journal once that for the majority this goes back to our Anglo-Saxon heritage), in rural or semi rural working class areas those social issues represent a way of life. That the uemployment rate goes up a couple percent, it's not a massive state-wide depression, so it's not likely enough to change the perceptions on social issues. I think Kerry has to mount a real offensive here and try to convince these folks that defeat is utterly imminent in Iraq, is happening as we speak, and that things are just going to spin so far out of control they'll spin off the axis if Bush gets back in.

I recently finished a book on the '84 campaign and there was a section in there that talked about a meeting Geraldine Ferraro had in, I think, Ohio with a group of union workers or union representatives and it was an interesting account. Apparently, it was a very edgy "encounter," for lack of a better term, and concluded with Ferraro leaving in a bit of a huff after a man explained to her that he intended to vote for Mondale if he voted, but that Reagan had said the stuff that working people believe. I think Kerry has a similar problem. Has he said what the working people believe? I'm not sure, we'll see.

[Giant Saguaro]

For the record, I have acknowledged that Zogby's internet state polls are baloney.  However, his state telephone tracking polls in 2000 were dead on.  (except California which was waaaay Bush friendly for all of you who have the mistaken view that Zogby is a partisan Dem)

He NAILED Florida  -  more accurate than Mason-Dixon.  I know you all worhip at the alter of Mason-Dixon.

Do you really think a professional pollster like Zogby would risk his credibility making the statements he's made if he wasn't absolutely positive that Bush was finished?

Handler, you are right to be suspicious of polls with a D or an R next to their names. However, there are decent partisan polls. I think, for example, on the Dem side, Democracy Corps is generally regarded as a pretty decent poll. Maybe not 100% the most reliable, but not bad. How about if we give Strategic Vision a chance, huh? I don't think they have a track record and are generally new.

Newsweek, for example, is clearly biased, yes. Maybe strategic vision is biased, who knows, we'll see; but their polls generally meet with what's close to consensus.