I thought Ohio Early voting actually favored Romney due to lower Obama turnout than 2008.
Romney is outperforming McCain, but he will need to win by quite a bit more than McCain did on E-Day to carry the state. This is likely considering past elections, but if you believe the polls, then logically Ds that haven't voted in early voting may turn out on E-Day and keep that from happening.
But, yeah, it certainly does. It's not as obvious in OH as it is in CO, IA, and (if Mayor Hancock is correct, which may not be true) WI.
I would think it would be more likely that "Low Dem early voter turnout" will predict "Lower Dem election day turnout"
Are the early voters also "Absentee voters" living out of state? If that is the case, then these same missing 2012 absentee voters are just not voting or they have voted in their new state outside Ohio.
Nonetheless, the 2012 Obama turnout in Ohio will be FAR LOWER than 2008 levels.
If this is the case, then Romney should be able to pull out a victory in Ohio.
