Do you think the "Hollywood media" skews the public polls for Obama?

[milhouse24]

There's a lot of consternation about inaccurate polls for the 2012 election. 

It is my belief, that because Obama has transcended politics into Pop Culture, and in essence made politics "cool" for the younger media-savvy generation, that Public Polls mistake "pop culture popularity" for "political/governing popularity."

The Hollywood media loves Obama and rarely criticizes him.  He is promoted as a Pop Culture icon among history making figures like Elvis and the Beatles.  He has a lot of adoring fans that support him and his social policies. 

This Hollywood echo chamber and appearances on ET and The View has increased his popularity amongst young, casual voters who are "soft, unreliable, and frontrunners."  They are in essence fairweather fans that only support the team when its winning.  They are not hardcore democratic activists. 

In essence, Obama has received a "Hollywood bump" in polls during his 4 years because Pollsters asked "soft, casual voters" if they supported Obama, and because of the media re-inforcement these casual voters became "hardcore Obama voters in the polls." 

Now that a viable and competent opponent has arrived on the scene and has gained national exposure and credibility, these frontrunning and fairweather swing voters are staying silent, because "politics is boring and for adults." 

Obama's campaign team has successfully managed and maintained a positive Hollywood media image.  But the more important task is the manage the Obama image with everyday people in the small single-traffic light midwest towns. 

[milhouse24]

When I mean "Hollywood media" - I'm referring to People magazine and US Weekly.  The Celebrity Hollywood media that covers gossip and pop culture stuff. 

People read and see how great Obama is from People Magazine and from Celebrity supporters and TV Shows, that they believe Obama is invincible and epicly popular.  Its almost like a "2008 campaign movie" that keeps getting replayed and never ends. 

[milhouse24]

I don't see the point of the question. If the media puts a gloss on the president, which it probably does, that doesn't skew the polls, it skews the election. But I'm sure Obama* doesn't care that much why people vote for him, as long as they do.

*ditto Romney

I can see your point.  But I believe that Obama has "soft voters" that "subconsciously lie to pollsters about their interest in politics and their enthusiastic committment to voting" 

Pollsters mistake these fairweather-frontrunning Obama voters as hardline, voting-in-the-rain voters.

That's why these polls are wrong, and so easily flipped to Romney.  Because the "front-running Hollywood gossip voters" tune out the pollsters when Obama fails at something. 

It is very telling that Obama campaign officials admit "that they negate 2-3% of all polls favoring Obama" - They wanted to sound confident, yet motivational to volunteers.  But I think the Campaign officials also knew that the reality of the polls was "a soft 2-3% bump for Obama"

[milhouse24]

I'm implying that there is a similar "Bradley effect" which was when "white guilt and racism" skewed polls because white people lied to pollsters about their commitment to an African American politician, when in reality they chose to vote for the white candidate. 

With Obama, there is still the fear of being labeled a "white racist" by publicly supporting Romney, so white people lie to pollsters.  These white people aren't actually "racists" but may be voting for Romney based on economic or other factors; but they don't want to publicly tell anyone their vote.  Along with the racism label, there is a lot of public peer pressure to support the sitting President and a "popular Hollywood-friendly and media-friendly president." 

No one is going to tell a pollster they aren't going to buy a movie ticket from a popular celebrity like "Tom Hanks" even if that person has no interest in seeing that movie.  They just know the "Hollywood media" and their "Liberal friends" are telling them they have to publicly support Obama, even though they privately support Romney. 

So in essence, some fake-Obama supporters are lying to pollsters because of "Pop Culture Pressure"