The thing to look at is where Romney is stuck at in most of these polls, which is 44-46% and some times lower and that doesn't seem to really changing.
That's something an incumbent worries about. What these polls show is that Romney has a lot of room to grow. People who don't want to vote for the president will either vote for the challenger or stay home, they won't change their mind and just vote for President Obama. That's why an incumbent who can't get over 50% in polling signals big trouble for that campaign. If Romney is at 44 percent in October, then he'll worry. But 44% in May/June--and ties in key swing states--is hardly a bad sign.
Yeah, there is an enthusiasm gap. The liberal media keeps ignoring the fact that many Obama supporters like college students under 30 are going to be pissed about the economy and not having jobs, and they will stay home. Black who do not support gay marriage may also choose to stay home, or even not care as much since history was already made in 2008 with the first black president, so there is less motivation to vote again.
Romney also has an enthusiasm gap, and that may improve depending on who he picks for VP. Romney has more room to grow his supporters, than Obama. Obama definitely has a ceiling right now.
With Obama supporting gay marriage, and taking more political risks, and taking more risky political strategies, I fully expect him to replace Joe Biden as VP, during the convention, if his poll numbers show him losing to Romney at that point. He will select a woman as VP, maybe even a gay woman, just to spice up the enthusiasm.
