Turnout in 2012

[milhouse24]

The Turnout will be a major aspect of determining who wins.  Despite having all the money and a mediocre scandal-free term, Obama will likely lose based on low turnout of his base of young people, blacks, white catholics, swing voter indepedents because of economic issues, and no "anti-war" issue.

Now the problem for Romney or Perry will be increasing turnout especially to get the swing voters.  Romney may face enthusiasm issues from Southern evangelicals, but that can be mitigated by having a southern evangelical candidate, like Perry, DeMint, or Jeb.  I don't think Perry would accept the VP from Romney, he's too content as the governor of Texas.  Jeb wants to be in the White House one way or another.  Romney can get the swing voters excited. 

The problem for Perry will be getting the swing voters excited.  He can certainly bring out the Southern Evangelicals, and Dubya brought them out to win close elections.  But I think if the issue is on Jobs and not "compassionate christianity" then Perry's appeal is limited.  Some swing voters may be tired of having Texans on the top of the ticket.  Perry would do well if he had Daniels as his VP. 

[milhouse24]

I'm starting to think a "Perry-Romney" ticket would be the dream ticket to maximize voter turnout for the GOP.  This is similar to the "Reagan-Bush" ticket.  I see a lot of parallels with the past, Reagan and Nixon were both from California and Perry and Dubya are both from Texas. 

Perry can win Southern Evangelical voters, he's a 3 term governor.  Romney is a single issue candidate, but focusing on the economy will be important as VP for voters and swing voters.  As only a one term governor, Romney doesn't have the conservative gravitas that Perry has, but Romney will be helpful to get skeptical northern white catholics in Ohio and other swing states.