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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #25 on: May 23, 2012, 06:20:57 PM »

Dirceu is a victim of Cachoeira's scheme. Cachoeira in testimony said nothing. Only good thing was his wife.
In Rio Largo, Alagoas, all of town councillors and mayor are on jail due to selling of a land area for a value lower than needed.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #26 on: May 30, 2012, 07:20:46 PM »

In Brazil: a big controversy appeared between Gilmar Mendes, Cardoso-appointed justice of Supreme Court and former President Lula. Mendes said that Lula tried to blackmail him in Mensalão's trial with accusations of links with Carlos Cachoeira's scheme. Gilmar was very linked to senator Demostenes Torres (former DEM-GO) and they said that had conversations unlawfully tapped that never appeared. This made Lula to fire Intelligence's chief Paulo Lacerda, who as Chief of Federal Police was responsible for a lot of operations against corruption.
Torres testified to Senate yesterday. He performed somewhat well but I doubt he can be saved from being expelled.
Governors Marconi Perillo (PSDB-GO) and Agnelo Queiroz (PT-DF) will be called to testify in Joint Inquiry Committee about Cachoeira's scheme. Perillo, jokingly, tried to testify yesterday, but was refused. Committee refused to call Sergio Cabral (PMDB-RJ), personal friend of Fernando Cavendish, owner of Delta (building company) who was linked to Cachoeira's scheme.
In Recife election, Mauricio Rands dropped out and party expects that mayor João da Costa to do same thing. Favourite to become PT's nominee is Senator Humberto Costa (PT-PE). If Humberto Costa gets to be elected, he'll be replaced in Senate by former Governor Joaquim Francisco who was elected by PFL, but is now in Campos' PSB.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #27 on: June 06, 2012, 11:21:03 PM »
« Edited: June 08, 2012, 03:20:41 PM by RodPresident »

Now, Perillo's problems are turning for worse. He sold a home where Cachoeira was living before prison. Home owner said that he paid in money, while he says that he received three checks.
In São Paulo, PSB is going to endorse Haddad, while PR will endorse Serra, corrected.
In Recife, Humberto Costa (PT) will be candidate for Mayor. National PT vetoed João da Costa.
In Salvador, former mayor Mario Kértesz (PMDB) will go back to politics after 20 years. He went from politics to become one of most-listened radio hosts in Bahia. He served two times as mayor, one as governor-appointed from 1979 to 1981 and elected from 1986 to 1988.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #28 on: June 08, 2012, 12:48:44 AM »

Kértesz' newest personal enemy is state legislator Reverend Sargent Isidorio (PSB), a crazy former policeman who was expelled from state police in 2001 strike. Isidorio says that is a former gay and that had AIDS. Isidorio fought against prostate exam too.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #29 on: June 08, 2012, 04:10:45 AM »

Isidorio ran for PT in 2002 and got in, attempted a seat in Brasilia in 2006 for PSC and failed and came back in 2010 for PSB. He's a lunatic. He would make a good candidate for M5S in Italy.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #30 on: June 08, 2012, 03:25:42 PM »

Serra is in lead. I corrected. It's PR which will endorse Serra.
Camata served five terms in Congress from 1987 to 2003 and from 2007 to 2011. She went to PSDB because her friendship with Serra and after her husband, Gerson Camata (PMDB) was going to retire (or denied renomination) from the Senate. In FHC government, she had a very anti-government vote, but was nominated for VP.
Brazilian press is a sh**t, but PT voters are poor people who don't link to media and don't have money to buy Veja.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #31 on: June 14, 2012, 09:47:10 PM »

Gerson retired in 2010. PSDB is very hegemonist and would deny presidential nomination to a non-tucano, unless Serra suported Rita Camata.
News from election:
In Rio de Janeiro, state legislator Marcelo Freixo (PSOL) will be candidate for mayor with former drummer Marcelo Yuka (PSOL). Freixo became famous for fighting against paramilitary milices who take control in some former drug-trafficking communities. He suffers death threats until today. Yuka was drummer of "O Rappa" until he was shot in an robbery and paralized waist down.
PSDB candidate in Rio will be Federal Deputy Otavio Leite (PSDB). He was Cesar Maia's deputy mayor in his last term.
ACM Neto (DEM) surprised everybody and announced that his running-mate will be Celia Sacramento (PV). It's first time that Greens align with Carlists in Salvador.
In my home city, running-mate to José Ronaldo (DEM) will be former state legislator Luciano Ribeiro (PMDB) that goes back to politics after 20 years. It will be first time that Colbert Filho endorses a DEM candidate.
In Sao Paulo, biggest news is that Luiza Erundina (PSB) accepted to be Fernando Haddad's running-mate. A strong ticket for PT.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #32 on: June 18, 2012, 03:31:43 PM »

Big News:
Lula and Haddad made an agreement with Interpol's Wanted Paulo Maluf (PP). Erundina said that she can drop out as running-mate.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #33 on: June 25, 2012, 05:51:46 PM »

Erundina dropped out as running-mate. PC do B will endorse Haddad.
Maluf will support Haddad. He got a position in Ministry of Cities. Maluf is chairman of PP in São Paulo and Federal Deputy. He isn't devil of 15 years ago, but a caricature. He's more nice parliamentary to humorists in Brazillian TV.
In Curitiba, Rafael Grecca (PMDB) will attempt to get back Curitiba's mayoral job, now with Roberto Requião's patronage.
In Recife, Eduardo Campos' candidate Geraldo Julio (PSB) got endorsement of Campos' then biggest rival, Jarbas Vasconcelos (PMDB). Julio will get mayoral spot.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #34 on: December 02, 2015, 05:35:44 PM »

Eduardo Cunha has opened impeachment proceedings against Dilma! Now the House will oficially take on the matter. A special commission will be formed and after that the whole House will decide. If a 2/3 supermajority approves it, Dilma will be provisionally removed from the presidency and the matter will be sent to the Senate for a final decision.

Dilma's goose is cooked.
Cunha is going to be removed from office. And PT is against him. Dilma is very likely to survive. Opposition won't have strength to get 2/3 of votes and Dilma got a massive victory in Congress today.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #35 on: December 07, 2015, 05:56:34 PM »

Eduardo Cunha has opened impeachment proceedings against Dilma! Now the House will oficially take on the matter. A special commission will be formed and after that the whole House will decide. If a 2/3 supermajority approves it, Dilma will be provisionally removed from the presidency and the matter will be sent to the Senate for a final decision.

Dilma's goose is cooked.
Cunha is going to be removed from office. And PT is against him. Dilma is very likely to survive. Opposition won't have strength to get 2/3 of votes and Dilma got a massive victory in Congress today.

Dilma only had this "massive victory" because Brazil would have ran into a government shutdown if she didn't - something not even the opposition wanted.

It'll be 1992 all over again. Dilma's abysmal ratings and public pressure will guide the unideological center towards the impeachment. The PMDB is already in favor. Temer is salivating right now. Plus, impeaching Dilma will be a perfect smokescreen for those in fear of the Petrobras scandal. The PT only abandoned Cunha because they'd rather throw Dilma under the bus than hurting the party brand more. The economy will shrink further due to this whole mess and the business sector will fully support the impeachment because Temer should have little trouble guiding some sort of a national unity government until 2018.

There are rumors that the PMDB and the PSDB already sealed an agreement about the after-Dilma. Temer would have full PSDB support and would probably place many high profile Toucans in his cabinet. Then in 2018 Temer would run for Governor of São Paulo, with support from the PSDB. Meanwhile, with the economy recovering and many PT leaders in jail, someone like Aecio Neves or Jose Serra would be in prime position to run for the presidency.
This is incorrect. If Temer runs for São Paulo Governorship in 2008, if Dilma gets impeached, he would have to resign Presidency to run. And PSDB wouldn't surrender their fortress for any other.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #36 on: December 17, 2015, 07:15:52 PM »

Good news to Brazilian Democracy:
-Supreme Court said that procedures made by Speaker Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) are illegal and ordered to make a re-vote of Impeachment Commitee, with open vote and a list made by parliamentary leaders.
-Pro-Dilma Leonardo Picciani (PMDB-RJ) got back PMDB Caucus Leadership from pro-Cunha Leonardo Quintão (PMDB-MG).
-Attorney General Rodrigo Janot asked to remove Speaker Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) from office. After a raid on his home, they found papers to blackmail other congressmen.
-Budget was voted today. Then, Congress will go to recess until February. Minister of Finances Joaquim Levy (non partisan) will resign after a replacement is announced.
-President of the Senate Renan Calheiros (PMDB-AL) is in open war against Vice President Michel Temer (PMDB-SP).
-Yesterday, in all of Brazilian capitals, anti-impeachment protesters (include me) went to street against impeachment, corruption, but against government cuts too.
But, a sad note:
-Judiciary will go to recess. Then Brazil will have more one month of Eduardo Cunha as Speaker.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #37 on: March 04, 2016, 04:42:12 PM »

This thing was very unnecessary. If they wanted Lula to give explanations, they'd ask.
Looks a repeat of 1954, when they forced Getulio Vargas to suicide.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #38 on: March 15, 2016, 05:20:03 PM »

Delcidio plea bargain was very cheap for him. Only a fine of R$ 1,500,000.00 (U$ 400,000.00). And he threw sh**ts at every side. Aécio Neves, Mayor Eduardo Paes and even deceased Bahia oligarch Antonio Carlos Magalhaes. And it's shameful that Zavascki didn't ask for Delcidio's Senate resignation.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #39 on: March 19, 2016, 08:32:18 PM »

What is also interesting is that the ebb and flow of the Brazil equity markets as well as the value of BRL seems to be driven by international investors going in and out depending on the likelihood of  Dilma being out.  The basic idea seems to be that if Dilma is out then the focus of the government can shift to fixing structural problems versus Dilma using fiscal policy to prop up her regime.  Not sure if Dilma  is out it will play out that way but that how the market and mainly international investors are playing.   

That's exactly what investors are thinking. The thing is, they believe whoever takes office if/when Dilma is out will NOT run for reelection in 2018, so they believe whoever takes office would be willing to go through unpopular austerity measures to heal Brazil's fiscal policy.

Remember, there's even a chance that both Dilma AND Temer could fall in a few months. If this happens after December 31st 2016, then an indirect election would be triggered in an unicameral session of the Congress. Then, the Congress would probably handpick an "elder statesman" who wouldn't run for reelection in 2018 and who would be willing to go through all necessary measures to repair Brazil's economy. In fact, I've already heard that Nelson Jobim (PMDB/RS) is a name being ventilated for this scenario. Jobim is a former Supreme Court Justice that was also on FHC's, Lula's and Dilma's cabinet. He'd probably tick all the necessary boxes for the job.

What measures would those be?

Immediately:

1 - reducing the debt by reducing unnecessary spending, reducing the number of cabinet positions and reducing the number of federal public servants,
2 - reforming the Constitution to reduce mandatory spending (Brazil has a bizarre public spending system where about 90% of all public spending is mandatory and cannot be blocked during a situation of crisis),
3 - cutting down absurd regulations and interventions created by Dilma that made investors flee the country.

With those 3 measures we'd be able to restore confidence and a balanced budget by 2018 IMO. Those should also be enough to bring back the inflation to its targeted rate of 4,5%. On the long term, though, more reforms would be needed, like:

4 - Welfare/pensions reform (the toughest one due to the political implications of this, this is probably the most important one, as Brazil's welfare system has a hole of over 100 billion reais)
5 - Tax reform (very tricky because there's a huge war between the federal government, states governments and local governments about this one)
6 - Government procurement reform (vital to cut down the corruption on the public service)
7 - Privatizations (Brazil has over 100 state owned companies, some of them running huge deficits).
Problem is following:
1 - We can reduce debt, but not cutting public services. we can make better use of technology, create better procedures, but not at cost of a public service.
2 - Mandatory spending is a thing that insures that money will go to things that are needed. Things that we can question is quality of expenses. And systems of control failures.
3 - Dilma made this attempt when things were looking good. Energy reform became a failure after water crisis (Brazilian system is made of water-moved power plant)
4 - Welfare reform is needed, but a human welfare reform, that doesn't cut acquired rights. One example. Rural benefits (not Bolsa Familia) are very important means of giving resources to survival in poorer regions. But I don't support military benefits for single daughters who lives as common-law wives or widow benefits for younger wives with a large age gap with their husbands. We need to recognize a system good for a contemporary world.
5 - Tax reform is hardest duty. Nobody will do a tax reform in a federative country that has one state with 20% of people (São Paulo). Small reforms would be viable.
6 - Procurement reform is a good way. Have more independent control procedures, more citizenship acting than conflicts. People doesn't know how things function and then corrupts can act free. And even Audit Court is having problems in Lava Jato.
7 - Sell Petrobras, Eletrobras, BB, Caixa, and etcetera. And then do what? Become hostages of oligopolies, financial markets, stock exchanges. Phone companies were sold, but they are with most problems with Justice. Government is with part of blame, but I doubt that this will change with PSDB.

Free market won't solve Brazilian problems alone, but D-E-M-O-C-R-A-C-Y is best solution. Political reforms will help more to fight corruption than illegal wiretappings, political gossips, censorship of thinking and pro-business reforms. This coup is a coup of corrupts wanting to survive.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #40 on: March 23, 2016, 07:30:54 PM »
« Edited: March 24, 2016, 06:27:03 PM by RodPresident »

Ciro is a strange kind of politician. He gained fame as able administrator along Tasso Jereissati who remains in PSDB. But Ciro always had a bad temper and an autocratic personality. And he always left parties when he clashed with party barons.
He called Vice President Temer as "Captain of Coup". His brother left Dilma's cabinet after he called Speaker Cunha of "racketeer" and about Congress being made of "300, 400 rackeeters". His campaign strategy is to beat hard in corrupt pragmatic parties like PMDB and promise more left-wing economic policies, to look like as heir of PT.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #41 on: April 19, 2016, 06:45:15 PM »

Pro-Dilma coalition is basically PT. PC do B, PDT and some parts of PR (Valdemar da Costa Neto). And NE governors helped a lot in getting some anti-impeachment votes. Maranhao governor Flavio Dino (PC do B) worked a lot to get pro-Dilma votes, while Roseana Sarney that got all suport from Lula worked against Dilma because she's in very difficult situation.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #42 on: April 24, 2016, 12:26:59 PM »

Do you think Serra might try to run again? He and Geraldo are well past their expiration dates, even if they are both pretty good, but they clearly both want the job.
PSDB-SP is in civil war between Alckmin and Serra factions. Then Serra is supporting Temer believing that he can jump to PMDB to get presidential nomination. Alckmin is in fear of having a powerful PMDB to oppose him in São Paulo politics.
But a surprise can happen as Henrique Meirelles (PSD) is now the favourite to be Minister of Treasury. He met Temer along Romero Jucá (eternal Government Leader in Senate and acting President of PMDB) and former minister Gilberto Kassab (PSD). He asked full control of economic policy to accept.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #43 on: April 24, 2016, 01:00:29 PM »

Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

I'm not actually sure that's even a desirable outcome (since I'd rather the top two contenders compete for his support).
Brazil's party system imploded. Bolsonaro made an agreement with Pastor Everaldo, PSC's chairman that he'll be the candidate if he gets more than 10% in polls. He can get it, but I doubt that he gets in runoff, unless PSDB implodes in multiples candidates and left-wing gets competitive candidates. I think that his ceiling in 1st round is 20%.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #44 on: April 24, 2016, 03:56:17 PM »

Is there any chance the wonderful Jair Bolsonaro makes it a second round?

I'm not actually sure that's even a desirable outcome (since I'd rather the top two contenders compete for his support).

You're supportive of a literal apologist for tyrants and torturers? The guy who dedicated his impeachment vote to the guy who was in charge of torturing the current president?
Bolsonaro is so dumb that Ustra didn't torture Dilma.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #45 on: April 25, 2016, 07:14:37 PM »

The idea of polling-- surveying, really-- the legislature strikes me as rather novel, at least from an American context.

Even if Dilma is considering new elections, there still isn't a mechanism under which they could be held, right?


If a PEC - Amendment to the constitution pass, it could happen. But it could be contested in supreme tribunal.

And there is a chance that both she and Temer would resign, but she has to combine with the russians (in this case, Temer and all the opposition).
Brazilian law respects too much "vested right". Then if Temer doesn't accept new elections, he can go to Supreme Court to strike down it. But this is very unlikely, as this needs to be approved by 3/5 of National Congress, in 2 votes in each House.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #46 on: May 05, 2016, 07:23:43 AM »

Speaker and gangster Eduardo Cunha (PMDB-RJ) is suspended of his term as Congressman, then of Speakership, by a monocratic decision by Minister Zavascki. Supreme Court didn't say anything for 141 days, time more of enough to him command a coup d'etat with traitor and conspirator Michel Temer (PMDB).
A fun note: Temer lost his political rights for 8 years after donating more than legal limit (10 % of personal yield of year before election).
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #47 on: May 08, 2016, 08:52:08 PM »

So, the door closes on Dilma, hits Cunha on the way out, and Temer's daughter is getting ready to be first lady.
No. Temer has a trophy wife who's 40 years younger than him. There was a meme about her "bela, recatada e do lar!". One of Temer's daughters, Luciana Temer disagrees with impeachment and stayed with Fernando Haddad government.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #48 on: May 09, 2016, 11:57:09 PM »

Apparently Maranhao voted against the impeachment? How was he chosen, anyway?
He is a Cunha allied. He was the PP's indicated in the Cunha list for the chamber election last year, as the VP of the House.

He was in favour for impeachment, but the fact that Sarney Family (that became enemies) turned pro impeachment made him change sides (besides, the fact that Flavio Dino, Maranhão's Governor, promised to support him for Senate in 2018 may helped).

He can be a infiltrated agent of Cunha too, no one knows.

Well, politics in Brasil looks like everyday less House of Cards and more just like that other series, yes, Lost.
Maranhão turned back as Senator Ciro Nogueira (PP's chairman and in deep problems with Car Wash) threatened him of expelling of party and of asking his mandate back.
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RodPresident
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,157
Brazil


Political Matrix
E: -7.23, S: -3.30

« Reply #49 on: May 11, 2016, 10:53:29 PM »

What are "substitution deputies"? Could someone please explain that?
Brazil legislative system is elected by open list with parties that can be united for election, but not for . But legislators can leave to serve in cabinets (federal, statewide and state capitals). Then, legislators can be replaced by legislators that stayed behind in list until legislators go back. In senate, "substitution senators" are elected in same ticket, usually campaign financers or family members, like Raimundo Lira (PMDB-PB), chairman of Senate Impeachment Committee who replaced Vital do Rego who went to a lifelong job to Audit Court and is now implicated in bribes of Lava Jato. They replace congressman if they get elected to another position too, like to be mayor or senators (who have eight years-term), usually, to become governors.
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