Canada 2006 (23rd Jan)

[Polkergeist]

What would happen if ( and its a big if ) if the Liberals fiish 3rd in seats behind the Conservatives and the NDP, who would they support in govt ?

[Polkergeist]

OK, let me give a scenario using the Hill and Knowlton election projection you gave the link for

Premise: 15 % swing from Liberal to NDP ( I know its a bit wild but for this exercise it will do.)

Lets say Liberal voters sick of the corruption scandal but fearful of a conservative govt vote for the NDP on the above swing this gives the following result:

Con: 29.6% 103 seats
NDP: 30.7% 82 seats
Lib: 21.7% 55 seats
BQ: 12.4 % 67 seats

So with the Liberals last they have no chance of forming a govt. Lets look at the other parties:

Conservatives: Only need one other party to form a govt but options are problematic. NDP is too left and by now is seeking its own chance in power and BQ is too left and alienates their own core supporters in Western Canada. So they approach the Liberals for cross bench support. Maybe even a coalition.

NDP: could form govt but needs both Liberal and BQ support, could form coalition with Libs to keep them tight and BQ support on crossbenches to keep them at arms length. Ultimate glue that keeps this coaltion/alliance together, fear of conservatives

BQ: No chance, can't protest against Ottawa if you are Ottawa.

So the 4 options are:

1. Conservative Minority with Liberal Support
2. Conservative-Liberal Coaltion Majority Govermment
3. NDP-Liberal Coalition Minority with BQ support
4. NDP Minority with Liberal and BQ support.

So the which is the most probable outcome ?

[Polkergeist]

Well, an NDP government is possible in the future, but not likely for 2005. The reason I am optimistic about the future is that the poll that I helped conduct last month found about 40% of Canadians would either vote NDP or support them as their second choice. However, I would be surprised if they broke 20% this year.

However, if this is the case

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The Conservatives would attempt to govern like the Liberals are now (no coallitions) but would ultimately fail. That's what a lot of people say. 103 + 55 is a majority, so my personal prediction would be an attempt at a grand coallition like in Germany. Although, with the way the Conservatives have been at the throats of the Liberals, I am beginning to agree with others who think that we would be heading to the polls again in a few months.

This leads me to my next question. If the Liberals have to chosse between the Tories and the NDP wills this cause internal infighting between those in the Liberal Party who are into centre-left point of view and the free-marketeers who would not be to out of place within the Conservatives but for social conservatism?

[Polkergeist]

Can the Bloc win Anglophone seats ?

The anglophone seats seem to be the Libs stronghold in Quebec. But this election is going to be a low water mark for the libs in Quebec.

[Polkergeist]

If a Conservative Minority Govt is elected, how long will it last ?

The Tories don't seem to have no natural allies in the last parliament and no new parties seem to be entering into the new parliament. So how can they govern ?