If a Canadian Federal election was held now

[Polkergeist]

Using the CBC-Evironics Poll whose results are here:

http://www.cbc.ca/story/canada/national/2005/04/14/cbcpoll2050414.html

and also using the uniform swing method over the 5 regions the poll has used, I have projected what the House of Commons would look like based on the poll results.

also I only used decided voters and scales it up to 100 per cent using those figures

New Commons
      
Liberal           87   
Conservative 113   
NDP               45   
BQ                 64   
Oth                 1   

as for the seats changing hands.......

Atlantic Canada

Lib to Con
BONAVISTA—EXPLOITS (NL)

Lib to NDP
DARTMOUTH—COLE HARBOUR (NS)

Quebec

Lib to Con
PONTIAC

Lib to BQ
AHUNTSIC
BEAUCE
BOURASSA
BROME—MISSISQUOI
BROSSARD—LA PRAIRIE
GATINEAU
HONORÉ-MERCIER
HULL—AYLMER
JEANNE-LE BER
LAVAL—LES ÎLES
OUTREMONT
PAPINEAU

BQ to Con
LOUIS-SAINT-LAURENT

Ontario

Lib to Con
ANCASTER—DUNDAS—FLAMBOROUGH—WESTDALE
BARRIE
BRAMPTON WEST
BRANT
BURLINGTON
CHATHAM–KENT—ESSEX
KITCHENER—CONESTOGA
MIDDLESEX—KENT—LAMBTON
NIPISSING—TIMISKAMING
NORTHUMBERLAND—QUINTE WEST
OTTAWA—ORLÉANS
OTTAWA WEST—NEPEAN
PARRY SOUND—MUSKOKA
ST CATHARINES
SIMCOE NORTH

Lib to NDP
ALGOMA—MANITOULIN—KAPUSKASING
HAMILTON EAST—STONEY CREEK
HAMILTON MOUNTAIN
KENORA
LONDON—FANSHAWE
NICKEL BELT
PARKDALE—HIGH PARK
THUNDER BAY—RAINY RIVER
THUNDER BAY—SUPERIOR NORTH
TRINITY—SPADINA
WELLAND

Con to NDP
OSHAWA

Prairies

Lib to Con
EDMONTON—BEAUMONT (AL)
EDMONTON CENTRE (AL)
CHARLESWOOD—ST JAMES (MAN)

Con to NDP
PALLISER (SASK)
REGINA—QU'APPELLE (SASK)
SASKATOON—ROSETOWN—BIGGAR (SASK)

BC

Lib to Con
NORTH VANCOUVER

Lib to NDP
ESQUIMALT—JUAN DE FUCA
VANCOUVER KINGSWAY
VANCOUVER CENTRE
VICTORIA

Con to NDP
NEWTON—NORTH DELTA
NEW WESTMINSTER—COQUITLAM
SOUTHERN INTERIOR
VANCOUVER ISLAND NORTH

Now a few riders to survey:

- I am aware of the flaws of the swing method ! This is just a guide.

- There are several ridings in Sask. that had Conservative independants last election, I took the votes for those candidates as Conservative votes for the purposes of projecting those ridings (REGINA—LUMSDEN—LAKE CENTRE &  SASKATOON—HUMBOLDT)

- I apologise for putting the seats in capitals, to save time this involved a lot of cutting and pasting.

Now I'll hand over to you guys for the commentary.

[Polkergeist]

Bad news for the Conservatives. You catch the sitting party in a massive scandal, and still manage only to pick up 14 seats.

Yeah and they went backwards in BC. Althought they would win all the seats in Alberta.

That being said they only went up 3 points from the last election in this poll and most of that was in a 10 point gain in Quebec where they are far from winning most seats, so they swing is wasted. most of the seats they won in ontario was because the libs went down rather that the Conservatives going up.

[Polkergeist]

Poltergeist- you forgot the Territories. Western Arctic was won by the Liberals by 0.1% of the vote.

Yeah, there was no polling o fthe territories done but if they followed the national trend then Western Arctic would go from Lib to NDP

[Polkergeist]

Does anyone know where I can get Canadian 2004 election results by riding in an excel file. It would make the above analysis much easier

[Polkergeist]

Does anyone know where I can get Canadian 2004 election results by riding in an excel file. It would make the above analysis much easier

This isn't excel, but it may help:

http://esm.ubc.ca/CA06/forecast.php

Thanks for the link !