Your question has no meaning, though. The differences between the intervening 75 years would be crucial.
Does the US still have Hawaii and the Philippines, thereby giving it influence in China and a regional threat to Japan? Is Germany still the loser of the First World War in the same sense, with the similar punitive peace deal? There are so many minor issues that turn into major ones.
In particular, I don't see a major US presence in the Pacific Islands appearing in your scenario, leading to a lack of a Pearl Harbor and, likely, a successful Japanese domination over East Asia.
Yes let's say that every event that happened between 1865 and 1938 are the same. The north is at a depression but the south is fine. What are the WWII ramifications?
Nothing would have remained the same if one of the world's few developed nations (at the time) was split in half...
