Here's why Edwards would win:
1. The city/Long Island: Rudy probably takes Suffolk and Nassau by comfortable margins, but he runs into trouble in the city. He is NOT a friend of the black man, they hate him. Edwards probably takes 60-65% in the city, which is less than usual for a Dem, but still is a wide margin.
2. Upstate: Upstate NY is more conservative/populist, more working class. Edwards did well upstate in the 03/02/04 primary, and would likely appeal to the rural NY'er.
In total: Edwards with about 55%
If he can be elected Mayor before 9/11, what makes you think he can't take the city now?
