The Brad Miller Thread (AKA Draw your own CD)

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

All right, here we go.

I'm an independent, but a liberal one. Assume I run as a Democrat. Since it's not exactly hard to draw myself a safe Democratic seat, I decided to give myself areas that I am familiar with (at least somewhat), and areas that I have ties to (no matter how tenuous).



This is what I came up with in a vacuum. However, since I'd generally rather have Democrats in Congress than Republicans, it's likely that I would draw a nasty gerrymander that included something like this, had I actually bothered to draw the entire state.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

It is interesting to see three different NJ posts for ideal districts. Let me go a step beyond and assume they all sit as members of the NJ Redistricting Committee. I'll act as a staffer given their requests to form into the new map.

Here are my observations in fulfilling the request.

Chairman Verily (he has the most posts) is requesting the shape of the new CD 9. Even though the request is made without the VRA, the final map will have to have one majority-black and one majority-hispanic district. The majority-black district (CD 10) needs the Oranges, Maplewood, and part of Montclair to bring it up to 52.7% VAP. The majority-hispanic district (CD 11) is 51.8% VAP, but leaves Nutley and Lyndhurst as islands that have to go to the chairman's new CD. After those changes plus some extra wards in Clifton, it's now 61.9% Obama with a VAP of 56.7% white, 7.5% black, 16.2% Hispanic and 17.9% Asian.

Members Vazdul and krazen1211 have requested adjacent districts (CDs 12 and 4). They both are looking at parts of Mercer county and they've left a bit of a hole around Jamesburg in Middlesex. Since the Jamesburg hole is heavily Dem, that will go into CD 12 and most of krazen1211's Mercer request will be retained in CD 4. The biggest constraint on CD 4 is insuring that there are 3 full CDs in south Jersey without going into Monmouth, and that adds parts of Florence to CD 4 bringing it to 54.2% McCain.

CD 4 and the south Jersey 3 define CD 6 along the Jersey shore. CD 10 needed Plainfield, so to  maintain some compactness CD 6 picks up Piscataway from Vazduls' request. That leaves East Brunswick and Somerville to bring CD 12 up to population. It is now 66.4% Obama with VAP of 54.2 % white, 15.1% black, 15.0% Hispanic, and 14.1% Asian.

This is the map that results. The maximum deviation is 61 persons. The political split is 8 D - 4 R, with one of the D districts (CD 2) rated as a lean D with Obama at 54.3%.

Looks good to me. I have no problem with the changes to my district. I really have no preference as to whether I get Piscataway or Jamesburg and East Brunswick- at that point I was just looking for filler to bring my district up to population. I chose Piscataway because I have ties to Highland Park, and felt it would be ridiculous to cross the Raritan River just for Highland Park.

Silverlight is downloading

Somerville+Cambridge (from MA-8) +Brookline+Newton (from MA-4) = 310,000
Arlington 43,000, Watertown 32,000, Belmont 25,000, Lexington 31,000, Waltham 60,000 (from MA-7) = 191,000

Total suburban Boston = 501,000

Add in Alston-Brighton, Back Bay, South End, Beacon Hill, Jamaica Plain, and parts of Dorchester with a large enough gay population from MA-8, and you'll get a less diverse, more upscale version of MA-8 with a large liberal Jewish population. 

Thank God you're running in Massachusetts. Krazen and I can't afford having you run in New Jersey, unless you want a district dominated by Burlington and Camden.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

My district is the the Christie Swing-Jersey Shore Special (though it doesnt quite go from my house in Bayonne all the way down to Seaside).  This includes basically all the areas Christie over-performed his 7 point statewide swing. My ideas was to take culturally conservative white ethnics and Jews and pack as many in in North Central NJ as possible. I start in Bayonne, touch Elizabeth and Linden, take Republican areas of Woodbridge and then head into Monmouth County, stopping at Pt. Pleasant in Ocean County. I make sure to add Manalapan and Marlboro which have really swung to the GOP and have lots of Jews. There is a link through Colonia to Clark, Cranford, Kenilworth and western Linden. All of those towns I'd do well in. I'll take Perth Amboy and Carteret but not Asbury Park.

CD-6
Obama: 48.7%
McCain: 51.3%

Avg Performance:
Democratic: 48.8
Republican: 51.2

Demographics:
White: 70%
Black: 5.2%
Hispanic: 17.4%
Asian: 6%

VAP:
White: 72.4%
Black: 4.9%
Hispanic: 15.8%
Asian: 5.9%

Now I just need the pic. How do you insert em?

I'd really like to see this one. Even more, I'd like to see a full map that accomodates this district as well as the rest of our New Jersey delegation.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

My district is the the Christie Swing-Jersey Shore Special (though it doesnt quite go from my house in Bayonne all the way down to Seaside).  This includes basically all the areas Christie over-performed his 7 point statewide swing. My ideas was to take culturally conservative white ethnics and Jews and pack as many in in North Central NJ as possible. I start in Bayonne, touch Elizabeth and Linden, take Republican areas of Woodbridge and then head into Monmouth County, stopping at Pt. Pleasant in Ocean County. I make sure to add Manalapan and Marlboro which have really swung to the GOP and have lots of Jews. There is a link through Colonia to Clark, Cranford, Kenilworth and western Linden. All of those towns I'd do well in. I'll take Perth Amboy and Carteret but not Asbury Park.

CD-6
Obama: 48.7%
McCain: 51.3%

Avg Performance:
Democratic: 48.8
Republican: 51.2

Demographics:
White: 70%
Black: 5.2%
Hispanic: 17.4%
Asian: 6%

VAP:
White: 72.4%
Black: 4.9%
Hispanic: 15.8%
Asian: 5.9%

Now I just need the pic. How do you insert em?

I'd really like to see this one. Even more, I'd like to see a full map that accomodates this district as well as the rest of our New Jersey delegation.

Me, too. It sounds like a challenge to fit in, but not impossible. I'd need to see the proposed district since there is little wiggle room there. The second issue is whether krazen1211 is willing to drop a couple of points to take areas like Asbury Park.

We might be able to get krazen to accept Manchester or Medford or even Tinton Falls and Eatontown in exchange for some of inland Monmouth. Still, Pulaski, as the most "junior" member of the committee, might have to take the Republican parts of Somerset County instead.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Okay, here's what I came up with, using the "very tortured lines method."







NJ-1 (Blue): Camden, Glassboro, Willingboro, etc. 67.5% Obama, 64.0% Democratic average.
NJ-2 (Green): Atlantic City, Vineland, etc. 54.8% Obama, 53.2% Democratic average.
NJ-3 (Purple): Cherry Hill, Moorestown, Toms River, etc. 50.6% McCain, 51.9% Republican average.
NJ-4 (Red): Krazen's district. 54.0% McCain, 56.0% Republican average.
NJ-5 (Yellow): The Hispanic-Majority district. 73.6% Obama, 73.0% Democratic average, 51.8% VAP Hispanic.
NJ-6 (Teal): Pulaski's districk. 52.7% McCain, 53.1% Republican average.
NJ-7 (Grey): Phillipsburg, Bridgewater, Plainfield, etc. 55.0% Obama, 50.8% Democratic average, and a lot of pissed off Republicans.
NJ-8 (Lavender): Passaic, Fair Lawn, Mahwah, etc. 53.0% Obama, 52.1% Democratic average.
NJ-9 (Cyan): Verily's district. 62.0% Obama, 61.9% Democratic average.
NJ-10 (Magenta): The black-majority district (barely). 83.5% Obama, 80.7% Democratic average, 50.1% VAP Hispanic.
NJ-11 (Lime Green): Newton, Morristown, Wayne, etc. 56.1% McCain, 58.8% Republican average.
NJ-12 (Light Blue): My district. 66.7% Obama, 61.5% Democratic average.

Of course, I don't know where krazen lives, so this might not be good enough.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Connect Paterson to the Hispanic district though Kearny and northern Newark rather than into Elizabeth, then wrap Verily's Bergen County district around through North Haledon, Wayne, and go south into Verona/Livingston/etc.

I think this method is better than the one I used, as it will free up some heavily-black Newark precincts for the black-majority district.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

The finished product.





Very GOP favored. I get a 51% McCain district, Pulaski gets a 51% Obama district, Vazdul gets a 72% Obama pack right up the highway. The grey district is also Republican.

Alternatively, the Grey district can grab more of Mercer, while the Vazdul district gets the 4th's portions of Middlesex, while the 4th grabs all that area in Burlington County.

I also get drawn out of my district. I live in Hopewell Township, and I insist on a Mercer County-based district (at least as far as is reasonable). I'd even rather have the Republicans around Flemington than places like Plainfield and Woodbridge- I'm simply more familiar with them. I'm also white, and afraid that your map might leave me vulnerable to a racially-motivated primary (although there's no one racial group that would be dominant).

Other than that, the north looks about as good as can be expected. It's much cleaner than my Newark-Paterson black majority district that gives Torie's "gorgeous octopus" a run for its money.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

I really have to snake you up to Perth Amboy a bit to protect Pulaski. How's this? All of Mercer except the Republican areas.




The only other change would be if you wanted Lower Somerset. Then the red district would take a bit more of the Perth Amboy/Methuchen area.

I'll take the rest of Franklin Twp., Montgomery Twp., Rocky Hill, East Amwell Twp., Raritan Twp., and Flemington to get me as far out of Perth Amboy, Woodbridge, and Edison as that will take me.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

How did the state which my Commercial Law professor (an interesting guy - at once brilliant, iconoclast, and a former navy fighter jet pilot (he wrote an article in the WSJ over "Tailgate," that if you want someone other than pussies flying these bad ass machines, then you are going to have to put up with their hard play games) and in fantastic physical shape), characterized as the state "where the garbage meets the sea," take over this thread?  What the F is so fascinating about a state where honesty in government is  considered a concept for the rubes and the dumbs? 

I don't know. What do you think is so interesting about California?

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Can somebody draw a district for my mother, a Rush Holt-ish technocratic Democrat, who lives in Bordentown City, New Jersey and works in Trenton? She'd like a Mercer County-centred district that includes as many Democratic parts of northern Burlington County as can be shoved into it and goes up into Hunterdon (as opposed to Somerset/Middlesex/Monmouth) if that's not enough population. Basically, a Likely-D (CPVI preferably above 6 or 7 but she doesn't want an outright Dem pack) middle-Delaware River district. Both of us are also interested in seeing how a Republican pack in South Jersey would turn out.

Draw a district for a potential primary opponent? Never!

But seriously, I'll get right on it.

[Vazdul (Formerly Chairman of the Communist Party of Ontario)]

Can somebody draw a district for my mother, a Rush Holt-ish technocratic Democrat, who lives in Bordentown City, New Jersey and works in Trenton? She'd like a Mercer County-centred district that includes as many Democratic parts of northern Burlington County as can be shoved into it and goes up into Hunterdon (as opposed to Somerset/Middlesex/Monmouth) if that's not enough population. Basically, a Likely-D (CPVI preferably above 6 or 7 but she doesn't want an outright Dem pack) middle-Delaware River district. Both of us are also interested in seeing how a Republican pack in South Jersey would turn out.

You're looking at something like this.



64.3% Obama, 59.3% Democratic average. If that's too Democratic, we can exchange everything along the river south of Burlington Township for swingier areas like Marlton and Medford, or Lower Hunterdon if she'd prefer.

Of course, that's in a vacuum. If we're to accomodate your mother along with the rest of the New Jerseyans who already made claims, she's going to have to go into Camden and Gloucester instead, as I live in Mercer. I'll give up Trenton, but no more.