I have been thinking about this at length and Republicans polling well at this time usually turns because:
1.) leads are small (3-5 pts on average)
2.) undecideds are very, very high (R near 42-44%)
3.) Democratic base comes home
While number 3 is certainly possible with Corzine registering only around 80% Dem support, the other two are not. Christie's leads usually are around double digits and he usually breaks 50%.
Are we to believe this is for real?
First, Christie has generally performed better in surveys than in the actual election. Before the primary farleight Dickson had him up by 24 points (Quinnipiac said 23) while he actually won by 13 (because he had support from the Republican organization and preferential ballot status).
Second, what is this lionizing of Christie? I understand you want to get rid of Corzine but, Christie's not much different. Would you support Corzine if he changed parties?
Third, if Christie goes into hiding and the focus is on the economy and Corzine, then by default, Christie will win.
