CARLHAYDEN
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Posts: 10,638
Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51
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« on: September 01, 2008, 09:18:56 PM » |
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American Presidential elections have revolved around three major/and one minor theme. The prevailing one has largely been based on the circumstances of the day. They are:
1.) the economy, (this has usually been the predominant theme)
2.) foreign policy/national defense, (during times of conflict or impending conflict)
3.) social issues, (1968 to present), and (minor theme).
4.) the average guy versus the elite.
Now, neither Obama nor McCain have a good grasp of economics. Obama's vague bromides come apart when close attention is paid to them while McCain has been so erratic, no one serious trusts him.
On foreign policy/national defense, McCain mops up the floor with Obama. Obama's pathetic "nuanced" reaction to the Russian invasion of Georgia as contrasted to McCain's intelligent and sound response really underlines this area. If there is another foreign policy crisis between now and the election (say, Russia invades another country), this could well tip the scale in McCain's favor.
On social policy, both candidates have a deaf ear for the electorate. Where Clinton was brilliant in putting this subject to rest in 1992 with his denunciation of Sister Sojah and returning to Arkansas to sign a death warrant, Obama has talked about Americans "clinging" to religion, guns and hatred of foreigners. On the other hand, McCain is still distrusted by the antiabortion people, gun owners and opponents of illegal aliens. On balance, McCain has given up more on this area than typical Republican candidates since 1968, and it could well be his undoing. The nomination of Palin has somewhat helped the distrust subside, but it remains strong below the surface.
Now, Hillary really socked it to Obama in the primaries with the common man versus the effete snobs approach. McCain may be able to make some progress in the area.
However, events are in the saddle, and McCain is well known for saying/doing stupid things to his own detriment.
I don't see this election being a major win for either candidate, and suspect the winning candidate may end up finding his victory hollow in the end.
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