A quick DEFENSE of the FoxNews/OD poll...

[CARLHAYDEN]

A very thoughful analysis.

Some polls are just unbelievable.

I noted that the Harris poll showing Bush up 10 per cent was unbelieveable, and the ABC poll showing him down several points was also not credible.

I believe that the Fox poll (on its face) is at the upper end of credibility and the Gallup Poll at the lower end of credibility.

Also, I must question any poll which shows the undecided vote below seven per cent.  Too many polls are pushing respondents too hard.

I will be interested in seeing the internals of the Opinion Dynamics poll.  Think the internals of the Pew poll was the best public poll I have seen recently.

[CARLHAYDEN]

You have a reasonable point except for the way in which 'likely voters' are determined.

At this point out in the campaign, if you rely on respondents stating how closely they are following the campaign to establish your likely voter screen, then I think pushing the voters is very defective.

If you were to use past voting habits as a screen, then I don't believe there would be a major problem with pushing the respondents to make a choice.

I guess this is one example of while polling is as much an art as a science.