LA Times Poll Kerry up 51-44 (without Nader) Kerry up 48-42 (with Nader)

[CARLHAYDEN]

The Vorlon will tell us

Don't know about Vorlon, but there are a number of problems with the poll.

First, its registered voters, not likely voters.

Second, the LATimes polls have a history of tilting to the left.

Third, summer polls typically give the Democrats a couple of points higher than non-summer polls (for a couple of reasons).

[CARLHAYDEN]

It's kind of strange they would have Kerry up 7 nationally but tie or trailing in Ohio and Wisconsin...but I guess not impossible given each poll's MoE.  It would be interesting to know what Party ID weight they used, though.  (I can't get into the website)

I wouldn't dismiss the poll just because it is registered, as opposed to likely, voters.  There are lots of registered voter polls at this stage of the game, and they have not shown a consistant bias toward Kerry or Bush.

Good analysis.

I can see Bush being up a couple of points in Ohio, and down a couple of points in Wisconsin, but the inversion in the LATimes polls just doesn't make sense.