libertarians...

[CARLHAYDEN]

If it looks like Bush is either going to win big or lose big, then Badnarik's vote will go up to somewhere between one to two per cent of the vote.

In a close race, he'll probably get 0.4% of the vote.

[CARLHAYDEN]

In a landslide I suspect the vote would break down regionally as follows (for Badnarik):

Northeast 0.8%
South 0.4%
Midwest 1.6%
West 3.6%

In this case, Badnarik could top five per cent in several western states.

[CARLHAYDEN]

There are two reasons Libertarians do poorly in the south.

First, they have very few active members in the south (they often have trouble coming with enough Presidential Elector candidates), and

Second, the political culture in the south is allergic to the position of the LP on most social issues.

Best chances of cracking five per cent are:  Alaska, Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada and New Mexico.

No chance of cracking five per cent in: California, Hawaii, Oregon, Utah, Washington or Wyoming.

Montana is very doubtful.

[CARLHAYDEN]

So far, the Constitution party appears to be doing better in Alabama, Connecticut, Kentucky, New Hampshire and South Dakota.

Not suprised about Alabama, Connecticut or Kentucky, mildly suprised about South Dakota are rather suprised about weakness of LP in New Hampshire.

Developments are in limbo about Maryland and Ohio last time I checked.

Generally, in most of the rest of the states the LP is tied with or ahead of the Constitution party.

[CARLHAYDEN]

So far, the Constitution party appears to be doing better in Alabama, Connecticut, Kentucky, New Hampshire and South Dakota.

Not suprised about Alabama, Connecticut or Kentucky, mildly suprised about South Dakota are rather suprised about weakness of LP in New Hampshire.

Developments are in limbo about Maryland and Ohio last time I checked.

Generally, in most of the rest of the states the LP is tied with or ahead of the Constitution party.

I noticed there were no delegates from South Dakota at the Libertarian National Convention. I think the Constitutionalists are fairly well organized there. Libertarians tend to underperform their national averages in the Deep South (except Florida) and that is where the Constitutionalists do better. In days past the Prohibitionists used to do okay in the South. Florida is the only place they ever elected a governor.

Actually, in 2000, the libertarians did well in Georgia and Louisiana, they preformed ok in North Carolina and Virginia.  They tanked in Mississippi and Tennessee.  Rest of the south was at or below national average,

[CARLHAYDEN]

Libertarians should just stay at local level, thats where they seem to be strong in.

The problems with the 3rd parties are that they tend to go too far in the same direction. There are not "moderate" Third parties...there are just the strong Liberal Lefts and the strong Conservative Rights.

Somebody needs to form a strong Political Force that can unite the Conservatives, Liberals, and Moderates.

Conservatives and Liberals have different value systems.  So, uniting the disparate elements won't happen.

[CARLHAYDEN]

In the real world, choices have to be made.

More than two centuries ago, a great American, Patrick Henry noted that while peace is desireable, freedom is more important.

James Burnham noted the difference in values in his seminal work, Suicide of the West.

[CARLHAYDEN]

First, Pat was NOT a derelict, he just didn't want to follow the path he father charted.  

Second, Pat did NOT want to be in business.  He was a moderately sucessful lawyer and later politician.

Third, he was heroic and consistent in his principles, even when threatened and demonized by Hamilton and the federalists.

Fourth, he saw things clearly, and stated his case with great eloquence.

Finally, thanks for noting my appreciation for good ole' pat, and my consistency.