Mexico having, probably, one of the longest election campaigns in the world, already has the "pre-campaign" for the July 2006 in full swing. Thus, with the elections due in 11 months (and the current presidential term with almost 16 months to go!) there is actual news to report.
The PRI "pre-candidates" other than the party leader Madrazo, having previously united in the anti-Madrazo front (literally called "All united against Madrazo") have run their "pre-primary". The winner is the outgoing Mexico State governor Arturo Montiel. He is now to run pretty much one on one in the full party primary against Madrazo. Granted, Madrazo has a fair chunk of the party machine on his side, but Montiel is as good an old dinosaur as they ever made - he is not to be written off. Today's Reforma poll (usually one of the best polling organizations in Mexico) puts Montiel at 44% to 41% for Madrazo among the PRI members and, and gives him an even healthier 46% to 37% lead among those who intend to vote. What is even more interesting, among the general electorate 43% would prefer Montiel as the PRI candidate (against 28% for Madrazo). Montiel could be a tough cookie as a PRI candidate - he knows how to play the party machine, and owns much of it in Mexico State, which is the major battlefront of the campaign, since 15% of the country's population live there (Madrazo's home state of Tabasco, which he shares with PRD's Lopez Obrador, is a lot smaller). Of course, there are still wild cards out there, but, unless a wild card is actually needed, it is down to these two for PRI.
As for the rest - not much news. For PRD Lopez Obrador has all but gotten the nomination - there won't be any serious candidates to rival him. PAN will have a noisy contested primary with a half dozen of serious and semi-serious contestants. So far, I would still think Creel and Calderon being the front-runners. Lopez Obrador has resigned his mayoralty and those PAN contenders who had been in the Cabinet have resigned their posts (by law one has to resign before the start of the general election campaign - i.e., some time in January, - but these days most parties require the same for candidates in the primaries before they can be formally registered to run).
So far outside the race, the "moral leader" of the PRD Cuauhtemoc Cardenas continues sulking and thinking about running as independent. Somewhat suggestively, a Federal Senator from Mexico City viewed as close to him has indicated that he might either run for the City Mayoralty as an independent, or even by contesting the PAN primary. This is a bit akin to Sen. Schummer making noises about contesting the Republican primary for NYC Mayor. That election is on the same day as the presidential, and the race is almost as interesting at this point - perhaps, I should write about it some other time.
On a wilder note, the Zapatista rebels have come out of the jungle to make vehement pronouncements against PRD in general and Lopez Obrador in particular. They've called him "trator" and worse. While they are not much of a force outside those parts of Chiapas which they control (and where they could make the election impossible), the surprise is that it is the leftmost candidate in the race they find particularly unacceptable (I guess, they view him as the most direct competition).
Two very thoughtful and informative posts.
I see Calderon as the PRD candidate (think he will get 21 per cent of the vote in the general), Obrador as the PAN candidate (32 per cent in the general) and Montiel as the PRI candidate (43 per cent).
A simple but relatively accurate way to look at Mexico geopolitically is to divide the county into thirds. The northern third is the PAN stronghold, the middle third largely PRI, with the south the PRD stronghold.
BTW, will Quintanna Roo every get to become a state again?
