Will PA be the next Nebraska/Maine? (user search)
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  Will PA be the next Nebraska/Maine? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Will PA be the next Nebraska/Maine?  (Read 4425 times)
CARLHAYDEN
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Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« on: May 10, 2005, 05:05:16 PM »

How many Congressional districts in Pennsylvania did Bush carry in 2004?
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CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #1 on: May 10, 2005, 05:13:31 PM »

Not having the 2004 presidential results map by CD yet, here's the one for 2000:



Under the Nebraska/Maine system, the result would have been:
Gore: 13 votes (11 CDs, 2 AL)
Bush: 10 votes

With the Colorado system, Gore would have got 12 votes, Bush 11.

Obviously it would be nice to do a similar analysis using the current 21 EVs for PA, but we'll have to wait for that I guess.

Thanks for the info.

I estimate that Bush would have carried a majority (12+/- 1) of the Congressional Districts in Pennsylvania in 2004.

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CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #2 on: May 10, 2005, 05:17:56 PM »

How many Congressional districts in Pennsylvania did Bush carry in 2004?

Bush likely took the following:

PA 3
PA 4
PA 5
PA 9
PA 10
PA 15
PA 16
PA 17
PA 18
PA 19

That would be 10 for Bush, 11 for Kerry.

So you think the Kerry carried 6,7, and 8, while Bush carried 17?
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