Exit polls or final results: where's truth? (user search)
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  2004 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Exit polls or final results: where's truth? (search mode)
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Author Topic: Exit polls or final results: where's truth?  (Read 6355 times)
CARLHAYDEN
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Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« on: November 05, 2004, 06:33:04 AM »

For over twenty years there has been a steady increase in 'absentee/early' voting.

These votes are NOT counted in the exit polls.

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CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2004, 09:25:16 AM »

For over twenty years there has been a steady increase in 'absentee/early' voting.

These votes are NOT counted in the exit polls.


Do you know the final percentage of 'absentee/early' voting respect to 2 november voting ?
And what advantage for Bush in 'absentee/early' voting could justify the exit polls/final results switch (from 51/48 to 48/51)?   
Thank you for your attention,

Since the 'absentee/early' vote has NOT been fully tabulated in many jurisdictions, I cannot provide this at this time.

I will note however, that the 'early/absentee vote' has historically been very favorable to Republicans.
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CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #2 on: November 06, 2004, 07:53:50 AM »

For over twenty years there has been a steady increase in 'absentee/early' voting.

These votes are NOT counted in the exit polls.
Do you know the final percentage of 'absentee/early' voting respect to 2 november voting ?
And what advantage for Bush in 'absentee/early' voting could justify the exit polls/final results switch (from 51/48 to 48/51)?   
Thank you for your attention,
In Texas, early voting was 51.1% of the total votes cast for President.  The final result was about 1.5% more favorable for Kerry than the early voting, meaning that the election day voting overall was about 3% better for Kerry.  In all the counties I looked at, the Bush early vote was a larger percentage of his final vote, than was the Kerry early voting.


Thank you.

That's about what I expected.
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CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #3 on: November 06, 2004, 09:04:53 PM »

he's going through one of the standard stages of left-wing denial.

Various stages include: (a) blaming the nominee, (b) blaming the electorate, (c) blaming the oppostion, ad naseum.

Kerry did slightly better than I expected he would because he was largely sucessful in running away from his record.

Example: How many of the voters know how Kerry voted on the Laci Peterson law?  Of those who did know how he voted, how did they vote?


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CARLHAYDEN
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 10,638


Political Matrix
E: 1.38, S: -0.51

« Reply #4 on: November 07, 2004, 03:24:26 AM »


The point is that the law would never have been passed if it wasn't for the political gains involved.
this isn't about the pregnent woman making a choice not to carry the potential child to full term.

Actually it is. The difference between your nose-punching example is that there is not a large ideological movement dedicated to recognize noses as human beings.

Beet,

There are several issues here.

First, who should decide on major matters of public policy?  Lets be honest, the Supreme Court in Roe and Doe legislated from the bench.  An 'emenation' from a 'penumbra'?  Absurd!

Second, the majority opinion in this country is that abortion should be permissible in some, but not all, circumstances.  The pro-abortion forces are unwilling to accept any restrictions!

Third, if abortion on demand can be written into the Constitution by a group of overzealous judges, then the Constitution becomes a blank check for the judiciary.  This scares the hell out of me.
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