Election simulation

[CARLHAYDEN]

I must disagree with some of your "assumptions," with explanations.

First, ballot measures on several states are impacting the vote there:

Maine          In addition to the 'hunters rights' ballot measure there is
                   'Prop 13" style property tax limitation on the ballot.  Kerry
                   is NOT assured of winning the state!

Michigan      The 'marriage' measure on the ballot combined with a late
                   (but effective) bush campaign there pointing out Kerry's
                   support for Kyoto and increased CAFE standards has
                   also made this a swing state.

Oregon       Oregon has two measures on the ballot which help Bush.
                   First is the 'marriage' measure and second is the medical
                   malpractice tort reform measure.  This is also a swing
                   state.

Second, I disagree with your assignment of probabilities on the states you listed as 'swing' states.  You are far to generous in several of them to Kerry.  I'll only list those that are significantly off the mark.

Specifically,

Maine CD2          45% rather than 90% would be more accurate.
New Hampshire  45% would be more accurate than 80%.
Ohio                    45% would be more accurate than 55%.
Pennsylvania       52% would be more accurate than 85%

[CARLHAYDEN]

Kerry opposes the Kyoto treaty per se, but favors the measures in the Kyoto treaty for the United States.

He would support enacting the measures in the Kyoto treaty even if it other nations do not adopt the same measures.

So, substantively Kyoto favors the Kyot treaty while saying he opposes it.