Ok gloom and doomers, when will the SHTF?

[Free Trade is managed by the invisible hand.]

what

Go read some posts from SamSpade or Mint.

lol can you bring some of them up because me being his room mate I would love to seem them. I remember how he used to talk about hyperinflation and the collapse of the dollar all the time. He never gave me a good date, or anything and thus I am guessing he just lives by the law of anthropy.I remember he told me that economy should collapse sometime next year,or late summer and I intend on holding him to his word.

[Free Trade is managed by the invisible hand.]

The problem with doom sayers is that they don't potentially entertain alternative outcomes. For example I have at least 5 opinions/predictions of what could potentially happen over the next few years, and they are all based off of conditional statements. For example it is possible that another recession may occur if the unemployment rate increases, but a recession is far different from a financial crisis. This is a good example of a conditional statement because i am basing my claim off of the unemployment variable. After this I would than have to provide a model to show the percentage, or probability of such an event occurring. Thus allowing me to hypothetically formulate my answer as follows: "my research indicates that a double dip recession has a 30% chance, a budget crisis 10% chance, and a full blown recovery at 40%, ect". This answer is not only balanced but it shows that i have an open mind that is willing to entertain any/all potential scenarios.

In the end doomsayers are narrow minded and could never honestly entertain other possibilities. Perhaps we would all like to be one armed economists too,but are judgment is more sound compared to any doomsayer. Thus the wise economist should understand that the most important answer is the one that has some potential ability to be false.

The whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are always so certain of themselves, but wiser people so full of doubts.
Bertrand Russell

[Free Trade is managed by the invisible hand.]

I never believed the really depressing theories thrown out there, but it is still possible for the economy to go into a downturn. I think we may get at least a couple more quarters of growth, as we rebound from the recession, but it may not be sustainable if unemployment doesn't fall appreciably. In addition there are a lot of risks out there in the world like Greece and most of southern Europe, China overheating, defaults of commercial real estate etc. Any of these events could trigger the next downturn.

There is always something going on in the world that could destroy the economy even when things are good, and anyone with a deep sense of economic history would probably wonder how the whole crazy fabric still manages to hang together.

[Free Trade is managed by the invisible hand.]

rob,

I seem to have missed those "predictions of Gold at 5,000 dollars an ounce, food riots, hyper inflation, civil war, mass unemployment as bad or as worse as in the 1930's."

Could you please cite your sources?

Like I said, just read SamSpade or Mint's posts.

lol could you link me some of those posts?